The logic is simple: why wage a protracted struggle when you can use a mixture of fear and punishment to force the enemy to surrender?
In response to massive failures on battlefieldRussia has stepped up its attacks in Ukraine on everything from power plants and dams to railways, pipelines and ports. These attacks on civilian infrastructure are not random. Rather, they reflect an insidious calculation inherent in modern Russian military theory. For more than 20 years, Russian military magazines have emphasized the need to conduct contactless warfare and target critical infrastructure. American defense strategist Benjamin Jensen writes about this in his essay for The Conversation, noting that the world must prepare for additional strikes as Moscow looks for ways to regain the upper hand in the war and make up for its position on the battlefield.
“Initial period of war”
According to the Russian military concept of “early war” – the belief that the key to winning a conflict is to act from the beginning to undermine the adversary – attacks on infrastructure began before the first shot was fired.
In January 2022, a month before the invasion of Ukraine, a critical submarine cable connecting satellite ground stations on Svalbard and the Norwegian mainland was mysteriously severed, with most suggesting that Russia was to blame. By targeting this cable and simultaneously deploying more than 100,000 troops near the border with Ukraine, Moscow signaled the risk of escalation if NATO intervenes in the conflict.
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After the invasion began, Russia used cyber operations to limit Ukraine's ability to communicate by shutting down the Viasat satellite Internet network.
Cyber operations targeting infrastructure, cable cutting, GPS jamming and electronic attacks are key parts of Russian military theory. In fact, Russian military doctrine specifically calls for strategic operations to destroy critical infrastructure (SODCIT< /span>). They choose targets primarily based on their psychological effect. Damage to key infrastructure and the creation of long-term power outages, as well as disruptions to the ability to travel and transport goods, are believed to reduce the willingness of political leaders and the population to resist an attacking force.
Holding key targets at risk
According to Valery Kiselyov, a retired colonel and professor at the General Military Academy of the Russian Armed Forces, modern wars should be focused on destroying the enemy's critical economic infrastructure without involving a large concentration of ground forces. This concept is related to Russia's approach to the strategy of coercion, an alternative to conventional warfare that seeks to manipulate enemy behavior through political, economic, and military pressure. The logic is simple: why wage a protracted struggle when you can use a mixture of fear and punishment to force the enemy to surrender?
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When that coercion campaign failed in Ukraine, Russia swooped in openly and made the seizure of nuclear facilities a key part of its ground campaign, using them as blackmail and an operational shield to protect troop concentrations.
After its initial military plan – which relied on moving troops quickly to seize key territories – was thwarted by stubborn Ukrainian resistance and Western support, Russia stepped up its attacks on transport infrastructure in an unsuccessful attempt to limit Kyiv's ability to replenish its frontline formations. In April, Russia carried out a series of attacks on railways in central and western Ukraine. Over the summer, Russia attacked a major railway hub on Ukraine's Independence Day, killing several civilians.
Military campaigns have historically targeted transport infrastructure, but Russia has gone further. In response to the successful counteroffensive, Russia increased coercive measures. In September, Russia tried to destroy a dam near Kryvyi Rih – the city narrowly avoided disaster despite two salvos of cruise missiles that caused severe flooding but failed to destroy the dam. Russia later targeted a dam on the Siverskyi Donets River.
Strategic expansion beyond Ukraine
Many believe that infrastructure attacks are now spreading beyond Ukraine. Russia is suspected of sabotaging an underwater gas pipeline in October, which led to an environmental disaster in the Baltic and further squeezed European energy markets ahead of winter.
An investigation was also launched into the sabotage that brought down large segments of the German rail network on October 8, 2022. The “targeted and malicious action,” as Germany's transport minister described it, came after NATO and the EU warned countries to protect critical infrastructure amid tensions in Europe.
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These attacks may be harbingers of the next phase of the war. As evidenced by the horrendous attacks on Ukrainian cities on October 10, a combination of fear and interest will compel Russia to continue striking infrastructure as part of its larger strategy of coercion.
Moscow is trying to break Kyiv's manufacturing capabilities and distribution of electricity on the eve of winter. With high gas prices, threatened nuclear plants and disrupted pipelines, Russia is betting it can use the cold winter to gain a new advantage in negotiations.
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If the sabotage attacks in Germany and on the Nord Stream pipelines are connected to Russia, as most suspect, Moscow is clearly signaling that countries that support Ukraine are not immune to future attacks on infrastructure. By using covert operations and subversive infrastructure to complement Moscow's documented use of energy exports as coercive leverage, Putin appears to be reminding the world of his influence without publicly acknowledging his role in carrying out the attacks.
See special topic: In Zaporizhzhia region, invaders destroyed two schools Fortunately, there were no casualties. Mobilization in Ukraine: one more category of persons may be granted a deferment from conscription The Verkhovna Rada has registered a corresponding draft law. The Armed Forces struck the equipment and manpower of the occupiers in the areas of seven settlements of the Zaporizhia region Four S-300 complexes were destroyed. RF troops shelled Nikopol from “Hradiv”: the number of victims increased Three high-rise buildings and 21 private houses were damaged. The educational ombudsman told whether there are enough school psychologists amid the growing need for psychological support for children According to the results of the survey, 83% of children feel the need for support and have a poor psychological state.
