The publication cites the opinions of experts regarding Ukraine's application for accession.
Kyiv reacted to Russia's annexation of four Ukrainian regions, announcing an unexpected, quick application to join the NATO military alliance.
Existing members: Poland, Romania, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro and North Macedonia have already supported it.
But tellingly, NATO head Jens Stoltenberg avoided direct support, and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the application should be delayed.
Euronews gives five reasons why Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO in the near future.
1. This is the risk of a wider war
According to Article 5 of the NATO Collective Defense Treaty, if one member state is attacked, all others must consider it an attack on themselves and come to the aid of their ally.
This means that if Ukraine joined NATO while at war with Russia, Article 5 would apply.
“If Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, it could lead to escalation,” says John Williams, a professor at Durham University who specializes in international politics, war and sovereignty, warned that this could lead to a “terrible scenario”.
“NATO would be brought into this war directly,” he continued, having meaning that other members bordering Russia, such as the Baltic states and Poland, could potentially become a front line.
However, this reason does not mean that NATO's door is closed to Ukraine forever. After the end of the war, Ukraine can still join the alliance, and Ukraine remains a candidate for membership.
Jamie Shay, the former Deputy Assistant Secretary General of NATO, proposes to resolve the existing conflict first, since the main thing today is the preservation of Ukraine as a functioning state and the withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory.
“Let's prepare tonight's dinner, and then we'll take care of next week's dinner,” he added.
Read also: Bloomberg: Ukraine's entry into NATO without the occupied regions could be a compromise with Russia
2. Ukraine does not need NATO membership
The alliance is already committed to its support.
In addition to tens of billions of euros in military and financial aid from individual NATO member states, the alliance itself provides enormous support Ukraine, coordinating this bilateral aid and the delivery of humanitarian and non-lethal aid.
“The irony of fate. All these weapons coming to Ukraine already mean that, in a certain way, Ukraine already has a guarantee of NATO security even without membership,” says Shay.
He adds that sometimes a country can reap many of the benefits of NATO membership without actually joining the alliance, citing Kosovo, which was supported by NATO peacekeepers in the late 1990s, as an example.
The same is true of the nuclear threat, suggests Professor Williams.
Following Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov's comments that Russia should use low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Washington said it would respond strongly, and former CIA director David Petraeus said that The USA will destroy Russian troops in Ukraine and sink the entire Black Sea Fleet.
3. Ukraine is not ready for NATO membership
Before joining NATO, countries must meet certain economic, political and military standards.
According to Professor Williams, Ukraine is on a “good path” to fulfillment of membership criteria. At the same time, he points to certain problems with the country's democratic institutions and anti-corruption processes.
“Not many years have passed since elections in Ukraine ceased to be corrupt… and since mass street protests, which were designed to put Ukraine on the path to becoming a modern, liberal, democratic European state,” he said.< /p>
In his opinion, this path now looks irreversible. Putin guaranteed it. However, this is a long way, so Ukrainian political institutions have a lot to work on.
Ukraine's bid to join the European Union faces similar difficulties, raising concerns about whether it will meet the bloc's standards and expectations.
However, there is hope that the war will improve Ukraine's ability to meet NATO requirements, particularly militarily. .
“Ukraine can come out of this war with probably one of the best armies in NATO because it has received a lot of Western equipment and practice,” adds Shay.
According to him, this will make her a more attractive candidate” in the long run.
4. It is difficult to force all NATO members to support Ukraine
's bid
According to NATO rules, new members can only be accepted with the consent of all 30 current members. Even if one disagrees, it can hinder – or even derail – the whole process.
Sweden and Finland faced this problem with their bids, with Turkey first opposed. Likewise, Hungary may prove to be a problem for Ukraine's bid for membership due to a long-standing dispute over the rights of the Hungarian-speaking minority in Ukraine.
Since 2017, when Ukraine made the Ukrainian language compulsory in primary schools, Hungary has repeatedly blocked Ukraine's attempt to integrate into both NATO and the EU.
“Orban is the type of guy who will cause problems if will feel that he has the support of the population. Look at his record popularity!” says Shay.
Orbán has repeatedly criticized the West's strategy towards Russia and positioned himself as an ally of Putin, criticizing the use of sanctions and concluding gas deals with Moscow.
Meanwhile, the opinions of other European capitals may also prove to be a problem.
“The big question is whether France and Germany, which are countries of the alliance, will agree to this. Will they want to go that far?” says William Alberk, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.
In 2008, both Paris and Berlin blocked attempts by Ukraine and Georgia to join the alliance, and even in February 2022 — just a week before the invasion — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Ukraine's NATO membership was not planned.
Read also: Die Welt: Scholz assured Putin before the invasion that Ukraine would not join NATO for another 30 years
5. This would be a propaganda victory for Putin
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Putin has promoted the position that Russia is threatened by NATO. He has consistently justified the invasion of Ukraine by wanting to rid Russia of this problem, which he claims poses a threat to Russia's territorial integrity.
If Ukraine were to join NATO's integrated defense plan, Shay claims that it would necessarily involve the deployment of Western troops and military bases on Ukrainian territory.
“This would give Putin a powerful propaganda boost. Putin is trying extremely hard, even desperately, to convince Russians that there is an external existential threat from NATO. And the involvement of Ukraine now will only play into the hands of this narrative,” says Alberk.
NATO representatives and Western politicians have repeatedly made it clear that the war in Ukraine is a conflict between Kyiv and Moscow, and US President Joe Biden has stated , which will not involve the alliance in a wider conflict over Ukraine.
As a strong supporter of Ukraine's application for membership, Alberk says: “Putin is realizing his own nightmares in Europe… Ukraine joined the West, turned away forever, Finland and Sweden in NATO”.
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“I mean, he's very good at shooting himself in the foot,” he adds.
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