The war in Ukraine is a more crucial challenge for the United States than the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine has been going on for six weeks. But events are already moving according to a familiar pattern. Usually in wars, both sides come into conflict with their own theory of victory. But when both theories fail, then the true nature of the conflict becomes apparent.
During the Second Punic War (218-201 BC), Hannibal believed that he could send an army to Italy and win several high-profile victories, after which other city-states under Roman rule would revolt, allowing him to overthrow the Roman regime forever. The Romans believed that by having more capable legions with a higher level of morale and discipline, they would quickly show Hannibal who was in charge. Both sides eventually realized that their initial strategies were not working, Walter Russell Mead, a professor of international affairs at Yale University, wrote in the Wall Street Journal.
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The Romans were shocked by a series of catastrophic military defeats, facing the greatest challenge in Roman history. Hannibal achieved his original goals. He was able to move his army across the Alps and win a number of important victories that young officers are still studying around the world. But his strategy failed. Even after the Battle of Cannes, only a number of Italian city-states sided with him. Roman rule survived. And the war dragged on.
World War I began in a similar way. Both the French and the Germans planned that their rapid attacks would be decisive. France was preparing an attack across its eastern borders, and Germany was preparing to capture Paris through Belgium. Both plans failed, and the countries became embroiled in a conflict in which neither side knew how to win.
Something similar is happening with Putin's war against Ukraine. Russia's initial plan called for the destruction of the Ukrainian state through the rapid occupation of the capital and major cities such as Kharkiv. But the plan failed. Ukraine hoped that a strong rebuff and economic sanctions would force Putin to either agree to peace on terms acceptable to Kyiv, or lead to his overthrow. But, at least for now, none of this has happened. Now both sides are waging a war in which neither of them knows how to win. And it is difficult to imagine a peaceful compromise acceptable to Kyiv and Moscow. Ukraine cannot agree to a peace that will provide new territorial victims and leave it vulnerable to new Russian aggression. And Putin cannot end the war without demonstrative achievements at the cost of Ukraine. Military logic seems to be pushing both sides to further and perhaps more brutal military, economic and political conflict. Because everyone is looking for a way to victory. Russia is stepping up its military efforts in the east, increasing violence on the battlefield, and terrorizing peaceful Ukrainians to come to terms with Russian domination. Ukraine is stepping up calls on Western countries for more military aid and stronger sanctions.
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Against the background of Kyiv and Moscow's search for victory , the Biden administration has three completely unpleasant options to choose from.
The first is to help Ukraine win. This is the most emotionally convincing, most morally justified and politically useful option. However, the risks and costs are high. Russia will not accept defeat without trying all the tactics, no matter how cruel they are, as well as every available weapon. To force Russia to concede defeat in Ukraine, the Biden administration will have to turn to wartime thinking. It may be necessary to approach the nuclear frontier, which has not been the case since the 1962 Caribbean crisis. As Iran and China seek to weaken American power by all available means, a confrontation with Russian-led revisionists could be the most difficult challenge for America since the Cold War.
But the other two options are even worse. Russia's victory will undermine NATO's American prestige and viability. Especially if the West tries to force Ukraine to surrender and agree to Russian demands. Freezing the conflict is also dangerous. Because Russia could potentially leave an even larger part of Ukrainian territory under occupation. It will be difficult to call it anything other than a partial victory for Russia. And Putin will be able to resume hostilities when he pleases.
The failure of Putin's containment in Ukraine is not just the failure of the Biden administration. The blame also lies on the shoulders of Donald Trump, Barack Obama and George W. Bush. This failure may be even more costly than not being able to stop the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Biden's place in history depends on his ability to deal with the consequences of this increasingly brutal and unpredictable war.
Ukraine . In particular, Russian propaganda is actively spreading the thesis that “the first stage of the special operation has shown results.” And the so-called “withdrawal of troops” in the Chernihiv and Kyiv directions is actually a redeployment.
See the special topic: SBU: Russians are preparing a new provocation in Mariupol – accusing the defenders of the city of their crimes Thus, they are trying to absolve themselves of responsibility for the atrocities in Ukraine, which became known to the world after the liberation of Kyiv. Things are moving in the right direction: most Ukrainians believe in victory This view is shared in all regions. Kuleba spoke about how an embargo on Russian energy could affect the course of the war This is the only way to protect Ukrainians from the “new Buch”. Briefing of Russian soldiers who voluntarily joined Ukraine: online We are talking about members of the Legion of Freedom of Russia. “Bucha is only the beginning of the truth”: Podoliak addressed Europe, “which is still afraid” Kyiv authorities immediately warned that there are settlements where the situation can be even worse.
