He can survive an unsuccessful war, but not a rebuff or humiliation from Zelenskyi.
Russia's adventure with Ukraine could pay off if her initial thesis was correct: Ukraine was a fake and rotten state, ready to fall gratefully into the hands of Russia. This would prove many things – that Russia is a model for the future that someone, somewhere wants to be a part of.
But one can assume that Vladimir Putin knows: his end could be that his domestic allies see that he seeks a dangerous escalation of a failed war that no longer benefits Russia and is waged only to save face. He has already crossed out 50 years of Soviet and Russian efforts to build the European gas business.
So, according to an article in The Wall Street Journal, Putin's best bet is to negotiate, namely to get a cease-fire to begin with and then let negotiations on a final settlement drag on for 10 years, 20 years, however long he hopes to live while he tries restore your energy.
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This question causes a lot of discussion, but Putin can still survive an unsuccessful war, because the dead Russian military dead are mainly representatives of national minorities from the provinces, which have little influence in Russia. We can assume that he understands his situation. His policy after the war went off script was aimed at anesthetizing vital sections of the population as much as possible from the fact that the war was going on at all. The privileged 17 million of Moscow and St. Petersburg are not going to protest in the streets, even if he does not conquer Ukraine. But they might if he tries to drag their families into the war.
He will face stiff opposition one way or another, but he is turning 70 and is still destined to face the risk of an aging dictator. His chances are better if he cuts his losses, but don't expect that to happen. He cannot extend his hand prematurely, because he cannot risk being rebuffed and humiliated by Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
For months, Putin waited for the development of levers of influence, which never happened: a military mistake by Ukraine and its allies, for example, due to an energy panic. Even if a friend and ally came to power in Italy or another large European country, this would not prevent the USA, the British, Eastern Europeans and even the Germans from continuing to support Ukraine.
And unlike Putin, Ukraine has no problem mobilizing its population for war. They fight willingly. Armaments and training from the West are turning Ukraine into a local military superpower. Every story about a ballet dancer, poet or entrepreneur who dies in battle is compared to Russia's addiction to fools. But Ukraine can talk about its losses, maybe, even exaggerate them, and Russia still has to hide its losses.
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Obvious Ukraine's ability to be the lowest soldieris the inventive, multidisciplinary warfare (including information warfare) that dominates the 21st century. Even Putin seems to understand the picture and the risk of further defeats it portends.
His energy card cannot save him now because he has waited too long to play it. Instead of panic, Germany gave way to preparation and planning. When his “light” war got out of hand, he tried to make the Russian middle class minimally concerned about it. Hence the video in which Yevgeny Prigozhin recruits new mercenaries in the prison yard. Prigozhin's frank answer was indicativeto the leak: “These are either private military companies and prisoners, or your children. Decide for yourself.” These words, published on social networks, were aimed at the intelligent part of the Russian population, which receives its news from the Internet through cannon fodder heads and their parents drowning in state television propaganda.
Putin's supporters were shocked by the episode of Ferris wheel, which he inaugurated in Moscow, while his troops in Ukraine were retreating.
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The question now is not whether Putin wants out of the war. The question is whether the President of Ukraine Zelenskyi will allow him to do it.
See special topic: Many Russian mobilized may not reach Ukraine – expert And this threat should not be neglected. Zelensky was told that the NASAMS systems have not yet arrived in Ukraine Kyiv only received consent to supply the systems. The SBU showed one of the Russian torture chambers in the Kharkiv region From there, Ukrainians were taken to Russia. The occupiers are intensively shelling Toretsk: the hospital and houses were damaged The Russian army shelled the center of Avdiivka with artillery. The President of Finland warned about a dangerous moment in the war, because Putin is a “fighter” Niinisto believes that his Russian colleague wants to finally solve the Ukrainian issue.
