US intelligence officials avoid making predictions. But they share information with journalists.
The collapse of Vladimir Putin's campaign in Ukraine was so obvious , that US intelligence officials, who usually prefer not to make any predictions, are optimistic. Newsweek writes about it.
Three American government officials said that as a result of Kyiv's successful counteroffensive, the Russian leader has serious problems inside the country. Outraged by the rising cost of war, the deaths of soldiers and the economic pain of sanctions, Russian politicians and social media influencers are already openly opposing the so-called “SVO”.
“Even pro-Kremlin voices — even state media — are questioning the war for the first time. They are driving Putin into a corner,” says a high-ranking intelligence official.
“Last week, even skeptics should have been convinced that Russia is over,” adds a second source, a high-ranking State Department official who deals with Russia issues.
Despite Moscow's claim that it is simply regrouping to focus on Donbas, no one believes the officials anymore: the reserves of equipment and manpower are running out.
A senior Pentagon official agrees with this opinion. During a press briefing earlier this week, he said that according to their estimates, Russian troops have ceded a significant area of previously captured territory and withdrawn from Kharkiv. However, he warns that Russia's offensive on Donetsk and west of Kherson, including intensive use of artillery and airstrikes, continues.
“The most difficult is ahead,” says the State Department official, referring to Ukraine's further struggle. — All eyes are fixed on Putin. Will he destroy Russia to stay in power? Or will Russia destroy him, finally bringing him to justice for his Ukrainian mistake?”.
Read also: Predictions about Putin's collapse are greatly exaggerated – FP expert
Last Tuesday evening, Ukrainian ground forces surprised Russia by launching a large-scale offensive around Kharkiv, the country's second-largest city. To the north of the city, the First Guards Tank Army was rapidly thrown back to the Russian border. About 120 kilometers south of Kharkiv, the city of Izyum was recaptured, and Russian troops rushed to find a safe place to retreat.
The personnel of the units of the so-called “DPR”, which until recently were stationed in Izyum, were forced to retreat 60 kilometers from the city due to a lack of ammunition and fuel, Ukrainian military intelligence reported this at the weekend.
“Russians and collaborators are fleeing… towards Russia,” – said the head of the Luhansk military administration Serhii Gaidai.
At the beginning of the week, Gaidai published a photo of the Ukrainian flag flying over a village on the eastern bank of the Oskil River in the north of Donbas. Social networks also report on Ukrainian forces on the outskirts of Lysychansk, Luhansk region. The city was captured in July. The return of the Armed Forces to Luhansk Oblast could mean the possibility that they will retake territory controlled by Russia since 2014.
Ukraine's offensive was carried out in a professional manner, a high-ranking official of the Ministry of Defense told journalists at a briefing. At the western end of the front in the Kherson region, 450 kilometers to the south, Russian forces find themselves increasingly isolated as a result of Ukrainian artillery and missile strikes that have destroyed three key bridges across the Dnipro River.
“The simulation of a counteroffensive in this direction led the Russians to believe that it would be concentrated in this area,” a senior military intelligence officer who works in the Pentagon told Newsweek. as a result, the Russians did everything to protect themselves from him. This not only “froze” Russian forces in place, the officer says, but also diverted attention from Kharkiv, where the main strike was actually planned.
“This event is really as significant as the April withdrawal from Kyiv and the north,” says the officer.
In his opinion, even firepower will not save Russia now.
Read also: Great turning point: NYT on what the loss of Izyum means for the Russians
On Wednesday evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that in the last two weeks, Ukraine has regained more than 8,000 square kilometers and promised to return all Ukrainian territory.
In his nightly video address, he even switched to Russian, to address Putin's troops at home, calling the war “clearly a lost cause” for Russia and urging them to lay down their arms.
“History is written by people, non-humans – never,” he said. – What will be written about you in history textbooks?
The Ukrainian leader promised the Russian troops that they “will not be treated as cannon fodder”. entire units of Russian troops.
British military intelligence claims that some units “fled in panic.”
Russia is deploying so-called blocking units behind the front line to prevent soldiers from escaping, Ukrainian military intelligence reports.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv — as well as the Russian withdrawal — forced unprepared Russian troops to retreat and now deprives them of their northern flank, clamping in a vise.
Meanwhile, the loss of Izyum and nearby Kupyansk, another important Russian logistics hub, threatens Russian supply lines to the Donbas frontline further south, according to British military intelligence.
Also read: The big turning point: NYT on what the loss of Izyum means for the Russians
“The loss of Kharkiv effectively closes the northern approach to Donetsk,” says the officer. — If Ukraine can keep its newly won territory, there is no real way for Russia to win in Donbas. Thus, the so-called special military operation will fail. It is impossible to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk.”
President Zelensky does not want to celebrate the victory too early.
“It's not a question of how long it lasts, it's a question of victory,” he said in an interview with CNN last weekend.
However, he promised that Ukraine will “fight to the end”, regardless of Russia's actions or even negotiations.
Read also: Counteroffensive of the Armed Forces: Russia is trying to bring Ukraine back to the negotiating table – Stefanyshyn< /p>
“We have no idea what needs to be done to convince Putin to start negotiations,” a State Department representative told Newsweek. — What we know for sure is that this is no longer just a military victory. Putin is already thinking about his own survival.”
This week, a group of municipal deputies in Moscow, risking fines and even imprisonment, publicly called on Putin to leave office. One of the local councils even called on the Duma, Russia's legislative body, to charge Putin with treason for organizing the invasion of Ukraine and for damaging the economy.
Independent media and social media influencers are beginning to report Russia's defeat in Ukraine. The Moscow Komsomolets tabloid said this week that Russia “underestimated the enemy.”
“We were defeated and tried to minimize losses by withdrawing our troops so they wouldn't be encircled,” the tabloid wrote.
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The Russian Ministry of Defense insists that its forces are simply carrying out a “pre-planned regrouping” to focus on fighting in Donbas. US intelligence rejects the claim, saying there is no indication that Moscow was preparing to withdraw or that it was changing its tactics in this area.
“We see abandoned weapons and fortifications,” a senior Army intelligence officer told Newsweek.
Sources in the Ukrainian government have published images of ammunition boxes and abandoned military equipment in places of withdrawal of Russian troops. British military intelligence claims that even some “expensive equipment” was left behind, citing a disorganized retreat by Russian units and breakdowns in command and control.
“It's a complete debacle,” says an intelligence officer.
< p>Read also: “No losses”: Forbes calculated the equipment lost by Russia during the incomplete week of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces
Even official Moscow was forced to admit failure at the front. admitted Dmytro Kiselyov, host of state television.
“The options for the future are bleak for Putin, especially because he is increasingly sensing the mood of the domestic opposition,” the intelligence officer claims. Not the last role in this is played by the strengthening of sanctions and the strict visa regime with European countries.
“We see more and more accusations of Ukraine's use of Western weapons,” says the second official. — It seems to be an excuse for the defeat of Russia. There is some irony in this, given that Putin and company have claimed to be capable of defeating NATO. Now the thesis is that “we could not win because of the intervention of the West”, this is intended to shift the responsibility from Moscow”.
Read also: Putin tried to explain the “negative offensive” of the Russian army near Kharkiv
Kremlin supporters are working to shift criticism of the defeat in the war from Putin himself to the military.
Comments are being heard more and more often, saying that the Russian General Staff is to blame for everything. It is unlikely that the Kremlin will admit to its mistake, so the blame will be shifted to the incompetence and corruption of the military – such scapegoats. And this can strengthen the position of Putin himself.
Ex-champion of the world chess Garry Kasparov, who is one of the leaders of the opposition, analyzed the position of the Russian helmsman.
“Putin has never dealt with such situations,” he told Kyiv Post this week. “Fortunately for him, he always managed to escape.”
Kasparov is sure that the continuation of the war is the only way for Putin to stay in power.
“He wants to create additional chaos in the free world, hoping that a new window of opportunity will open for him. In fact, it's just prolonged agony. This is cynical and absurd, but if it gives even a chance to retain power, Putin is ready to bury thousands of civilians in the coming months.” week also warned that the war in Ukraine may last a long time.
Read also: Predictions about Putin's collapse are greatly exaggerated – FP expert
Although a number of Ukrainian officials, including Zelenskyi himself, stated that they would not accept anything short of the complete capitulation of Russia, at least in one of the video addresses to the nation, the Ukrainian president was more conciliatory. According to him, in order to start negotiations, Putin must decide to withdraw to the borders that existed before the February invasion, without insisting that Russia return to the borders by 2014.
“Russia must admit that this is a great tragedy, a historical mistake,” Zelenskyi said. — If they are not ready, it means that they do not have the political will, and until then there will be no meaningful dialogue.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seemed to be happy about the open doors and announced, that Moscow is not against negotiations.
“The longer they delay this process, the harder it will be for them to negotiate with us,” he said. This was a certain recognition that over time Ukraine's victories will only continue, and Russia will have less and less leverage on any agreement. an official of the State Department.
Diplomats are urging Putin and his inner circle to join the talks before it is too late and there is still much to negotiate. US intelligence believes that the Russian military is tired and has begun to resist Putin.
The General Staff is unhappy with the dismissal this week of the head of the Western Military District, Andriy Sychovoy, who is fighting in Ukraine.
Although US intelligence continues to closely monitor the positioning of Russian nuclear forces and their stockpiles of chemical weapons, all official individuals who spoke to Newsweek dismissed the idea that Putin would resort to nuclear weapons. The situation will probably unfold in such a way that after leaving Kharkiv, Putin will most likely give up Kherson and move Russian forces to the east of the Dnipro River, where it is possible to maintain a more reliable front line.
Read also : Atlantic Council: Putin's nuclear blackmail hides a more complex reality
“I'm not very sure about the long war predictions,” says an army officer, adding that Putin has no real reserves and few options to reverse the situation
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