The Kremlin suddenly called the operation “impractical.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered not to hold storming of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol . Meeting with Defense Minister Serhiy Shoigu, he said the military operation was “inexpedient.” The Kremlin master could have several reasons for this, according to the BBC.
An attempt to seize Azovstal has been going on for several weeks. The defenders of Mariupol are defending the plant and civilians are hiding. The number of civilians and military is unknown. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, there are currently 2,500 people in the territory of Azovstal. The Russian military cites the testimony of Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered.
The Ukrainian side puts the figure at 1,000 civilians. It is impossible to verify these figures.
The plant occupies a huge area, has its own cargo port and a rather complicated system of underground communications.
Meeting with Putin and Shoigu
At a meeting with Putin, Shoigu called Mariupol the capital of the nationalist Azov. He stated that the city was taken under control, except for the territory of the Azovstal enterprise. “Ukrainian militants and foreign mercenaries are” securely locked in there, “Shoigu said.
that there are about two thousand people at the enterprise.
“I consider the proposed assault on the industrial zone inexpedient, I order to cancel. – Putin said after Shoigu's report on the situation in Mariupol. – This is the case when we have to think – that is, we must always think, but in this case, especially about saving the lives and health of our soldiers and officers. You don't have to climb into catacombs and crawl underground at these industrial sites. Block this industrial zone so that the fly does not fly.
Traditionally, Ukrainians were urged to surrender “for the sake of saving lives.”
Read also: Zelensky: “Ukrainian defenders remain in Mariupol”
“As for those who fled to the Azovstal plant and were blocked there thoroughly and around the perimeter, we need about three or four days In order to complete this work at Azovstal, he concluded his report to Putin with Shoigu.
And immediately there was Putin's order to cancel the assault.
Azovstal “?
Version-1 – military
Azovstal is a huge Soviet-built plant, with an entire underground city with an extensive communications system beneath it. According to some reports, some facilities can withstand even a nuclear strike.
The plant defends a large, well-prepared and motivated to continue the resistance of Ukrainian military groups. There is no information on the stockpiles of weapons, ammunition and food that the defenders have. However, it is well known that the besieged have access to the sea and, consequently, unlimited water supplies (drinking water from the sea can be obtained by evaporation), which is even more important in the blockade than food supplies.
Infantry units (otherwise not) can last for weeks without a guaranteed result, huge losses are inevitable, than to fill them – a big question.
Institute of Military Research
From late February to early March, when the Russian offensive on Mariupol began, Ukrainian troops in this direction bound the great forces of the Russians and the so-called “DNR” – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently spoke of 10,000 enemy groups, not counting the soldiers killed and wounded in the fighting.
Currently, the announced major Russian offensive in the south of Donbass (along the line Gulyaipole – Velyka Novosilka) is developing sluggishly. But if the forces deployed to storm Mariupol are transferred there, the situation for Ukraine could become seriously complicated.
Read also: FT: Incomplete control over Mariupol gives Russia a chance to announce the end of “denazification”
Judging by Shoigu's statement that the area around Azovstal is “securely blocked”, we can assume that he no longer believes Ukrainian troops on the territory of the plant pose a serious threat to the rear of the Russian group on the southern flank.
It is likely that Russia's military command now plans to withdraw some troops and continue the remaining blockade, shelling and bombing of Azovstal until the Ukrainian garrison runs out of power, food supplies and resistance.
< p> Version 2 – Political
A British military intelligence report of 19 April stated: “Russia's inability to suppress resistance in Mariupol and indiscriminate attacks that harmed local civilians show that the Russian military is still unable to achieve its goals as quickly as they would like. “
No one is expected to predict the date of the end of the Russian military operation in Mariupol, and there is not enough time. As reported by CNN, citing sources in US government agencies, Putin wants to win at least some victory by May 9. This date is of great symbolic significance for him – a military parade is usually held in Moscow on this day, and Putin would like to announce the success of his “special operation”.
But amid the storming of Azovstal and reports of mass deaths of civilians and soldiers on both sides, it is difficult to convince even the most gullible Russian citizen of the successful completion of the operation in Mariupol. But if you “freeze” the active phase of the operation on the territory of the plant, announce the “liberation” of the city and break through the land corridor to the annexed Crimea – then this version of victory can suit the Russian public.
Read also: Bloomberg: Level heroism of the defenders of Mariupol is found only in legends and myths
On the other hand, the refusal to storm Azovstal leaves room for political dialogue. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the destruction of Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol would put an end to negotiations with Russia: “it could be like ten Borodyanok.”
– trying to influence Russia through the leaders of other countries.
Adviser to the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Arestovych believes that Putin's order to abandon the assault shows that Russian troops are virtually unable to seize the enterprise.
Putin “showed concern for Russian soldiers.” This means that they can physically take Azovstal. They understood that. They suffered huge losses. Our defenders continue to hold the plant, “Arestovych said at a briefing on Thursday.
Read also: Marines and Azov rescued 500 fighters from the port of Mariupol
Version-3 – economic
Azovstal is one of the largest metallurgical plants in Europe.
Before the war, the plant produced about 4 million tons of steel, 3.5 million tons of cast iron, 1.2 million tons of rolled iron per year. Azovstal's products were used to build ships, bridges and oil pipelines. He was the only railway manufacturer in Ukraine.
Despite the huge damage caused to the plant during the fighting, Moscow may still hope to save something valuable.
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