As Putin escalates the war, some members of Russia's business elite are despairing.
When this week Vladimir Putin struck missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, the move appeared to give the Russian president a reprieve from hardliners who were demanding stronger action.
“Run, Zelensky, run,” encouraged Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. He said he was “100 percent satisfied” with the conduct of the war after weeks of criticizing Russia's military leadership for recent disastrous retreats.
But some senior Russian officials and business elites are exhausted and depressed – and the political climate is expected to worsen. and economic climate, writes the Washington Post. If the escalation was intended to prevent unrest over the mismanagement of the war, its impact is temporary, several officials said. There are also questions about how many missiles Russia has left and how long it can continue bombing.
“Rockets are being produced. But in single units. And the old reserves are running out,” said one official.
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Since the Ukrainian army began retaking territory in southern and eastern Ukraine, Putin has had to send hundreds of thousands of barely trained reservists into the war to bolster Russia's depleted army, a move that has sparked protests across Russia and forced at least 300,000 Russian men to flee across the country's borders to to avoid mobilization.
In Putin's inner circle, signs of discord began to appear, and Saturday's humiliating attack on the expensive Kerch Bridge to Crimea was the last straw.
“No one is satisfied with the status quo, – said a Russian official. – It is clear that there will be no military or political victory. But losing is also impossible. This turns into a chess situation known as zugzwang, where each move is worse than the next, but it is impossible not to move.
“People see that there is no future,” he added.
The mobilization has already dealt a blow to Putin's popularity, one of the main reasons for his legitimacy as president, and when the bodies of reservists begin to return from the front, the situation will worsen, he believes. a Moscow businessman.
“In a few months, there will be a very negative dynamic in Russia: the deterioration of mood in society,” he said. – Everything depends on the front.
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“Putin's arsenal of possible actions is very limited,” said Sergey Aleksashenko, a former deputy head of the Russian Central Bank who now lives in exile in the United States. – In addition to strikes on civilian infrastructure, he only has the ability to use tactical nuclear weapons. If the Ukrainian counterattack continues, then Putin will be left with the question of what to do next.”
The annexation of Ukrainian territories put the world “two or three steps” away from nuclear war. But few in Moscow say Putin will resort to a tactical nuclear strike, a Moscow businessman said, because “then he will have no cards left” and China can block such an escalation.
Saudi Arabia's support for oil production cuts this winter seems to have emboldened the Russian president, said the same Moscow leader. Even if energy prices remain at the same level, Putin “thinks that Europe will find itself in a crisis and will not have time for Ukraine.”
“It's still a war of attrition until one side can continue the war,” he said.
Economists and business executives say the sanctions are starting to hit the Russian economy harder as budget cuts are already in place, then as the G7 countries' proposed cap on the price of Russian oil will be another blow.
“The whole business is suffering from what is happening. Everyone has frozen their investment plans,” said a representative of the Moscow business elite. The belief that Russia can redirect trade flows from the West via China, Kazakhstan and India is fading fast. Kazakhstan has begun to block cargoes carrying European goods to Russia, and the Chinese have also begun to cut off some supplies.
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< p>“Everyone is completely disappointed. The mood is very bad,” said another high-ranking Russian businessman.
Members of Moscow's elite are beginning to talk about a potential leadership change in a way they never have before in more than 20 years of Putin's rule.
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“We have begun to enter a revolutionary situation,” said a Russian official. – Everyone is waiting for something different than what is happening now: a different leadership, a different war. Hawks want tougher action. Pigeons don't want war at all. The time is ripe for a change in the political system. But I don't know how it will be.”
See special topic: The authorities of the Russian Federation instructed to repair the Crimean Bridge no later than July 2023 RosZMI published the relevant order of the Government of the Russian Federation. Collaborator Balytsky received a passport of the Russian Federation even before the occupation – mass media Local mass media assure that he was preparing in advance for the Russian invasion. Martial law: the government approved the mechanism for the departure of aviation workers abroad Corresponding changes have already been introduced into the law. As a result of yesterday's rocket attack on Mykolaiv, seven people were killed – the head of the OVA Emergency and rescue operations continue. Probability of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine increased tenfold – ex-head of the Pentagon A well-planned Ukrainian offensive forces Russian troops to retreat, and Putin, who is under siege, tries to mobilize new recruits against the backdrop of growing dissent in Russia.
