Refusal of transit is now causing panic in the spot market and will only increase Russia's profits.
Mykhailo Honchar, President of the Center for Global Studies” Strategy XXI “, is convinced that Ukraine must do everything possible to remain a transit country with the support of European partners during the transition period refusal of Russian gas .
As already mentioned, at the first stage it is necessary to stop the work of SP-1 and “Turkish Stream” , reminds Gonchar.
“ After all, when there were no such pipelines, Russian gas was uninterruptedly supplied to consumers in the EU and Turkey for decades through Ukraine's GTS. Therefore the last molecule of Russian gas going to the EU must pass through the Ukrainian pipeline . For us, this is first and foremost a guarantee that Russia will not intentionally damage our gas infrastructure, because we need it for domestic gas transportation for Ukrainians ”, – the author writes.
Meanwhile refusal of transit now will cause panic in the spot market and, unfortunately, in the next three months will only increase the income of the aggressor , said the expert.
“In addition, Russia will be able to redirect the flow of gas through the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which is currently operating at a minimum load, and the Turkish flow is likely to be reloaded. At the same time, Gazprom will be able to legally not pay payments under the five-year agreement with Naftogaz in 2019 and even try to impose penalties. We should not forget that for our GTS unilateral termination of transit will be a technological and strategic challenge due to the need to reverse the system in reverse mode in combat. In addition, in such circumstances, the Russian Federation may purposefully strike at key GTS facilities to destroy the gas supply system, which will lead to socio-economic and humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine “, – added Gonchar.
A uncoordinated termination of transit with partners will dramatically reduce the likelihood of effective sanctions against Russian gas on their part. In addition, it may prompt Germany to overturn the decision to terminate PP-2, Gonchar said. We have and must coordinate our efforts with the EU and the US, “the expert warned.
Read also: Russia would lose $ 135 billion if the EU imposed an embargo on oil, gas and coal – expert
For more information on EU energy sanctions – the most effective impact on the Russian economy, read the article by Mikhail Gonchar “Europe in Russia's energy trap: how to overcome dependence? ”.
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