In some cases, there is a clear warning against the politicization of the enlargement process.
Two key warnings against EU candidate status are not directly related to Ukraine . However, there are other blocks of arguments that sound not so loud and unanimous, but still visible in some capitals, warns the director of the Center for New Europe Alyona Hetmanchuk.
The first block – it is the need to maintain the unity of policy towards Ukraine at EU and national level in those member states where the issue of candidacy is more likely to split political elites, than unites , the expert emphasizes.
“ At the level of the European Union, it is said that the submission of candidate status for Ukraine in June could destroy the unity of the EU in other critical issues for Ukraine. For example, some well-known European politicians have recently directly asked their Ukrainian counterparts: “What do you need more – candidate status or an oil embargo?” “, she writes.
Domestic or even intra-party unity – this is not the argument that is spoken out loud, but it also sounds, more often in friendly conversations with local politicians, who are not all right in the ruling coalition or party , Hetmanchuk continues.
“ Say, Among the German Social Democrats there are different opinions about the status of the candidate in June, although in general – the representatives of this party assured us – they have a positive attitude to the idea of Ukraine's future membership in the EU . At the same time, they insist that such serious decisions must be well analyzed and debated. If there is a false start and Ukraine gets a “no”, it will only play into the red, because it could provoke the postponement of the issue in a long drawer. At the same time, it should also be understood that the argument of fragile intra-party unity some heads of government European countries can be used as another excuse for Ukraine , so it should be clearly distinguished where such a problem really exists and where it is used, because they cannot directly say “no” to Ukraine “, – she writes.
In some capitals – especially Netherlands – quite noticeable warning against politicization of the enlargement process , emphasizes Hetmanchuk.
The idea of a special approach to Ukraine – a short straight path instead of decades of paved route with all the stops – is unacceptable, despite understanding the new reality and the price Ukraine pays for the right to be in the EU. Yes, in France it has been repeatedly emphasized that there should be a European perspective first, and then candidate status “, – adds the expert.
And the last block of reservations , which European politicians and diplomats are also talking about behind closed doors, rather than with visitors from Ukraine – this is a whole series of arguments about the war , Hetmanchuk notes.
“The point is, in particular, that the enlargement process should not begin with the participation of a country in open armed conflict. Especially with Russia. They say it is unclear what Putin's reaction to such a move will be. Unfortunately, elements of the “do not provoke Putin” policy, which should actually be buried along with the first missile strikes on Ukraine, are still very visible in some European capitals. Especially against the background of undisguised fear of the use of tactical nuclear weapons on his part, “- said the expert.
Also, some strategists in high-ranking cabinets appeal to the fact that we need to wait for the end of the war, because it is unclear what will be fixed in the future peace agreement – perhaps Ukraine in it at all will give up the desire to join the EU, as it was ready to give up potential NATO membership.
Finally, the issue of Moldova, and especially Georgia . If there are no questions about Moldova and the need to stay on the same track with Ukraine, there are serious concerns about Georgia about its current ability to meet the “Copenhagen criteria”, the expert said.
Read more about “confrontations with reality” and suggestions on how to overcome it by June in the article Alona Hetmanchuk “ EU candidate status: who and why is ready to refuse Ukraine ».
