A well-planned Ukrainian offensive forces Russian troops to retreat, while a beleaguered Putin tries to mobilize new recruits amid growing dissent in Russia.
More and more cornered and isolated Putin continues to threaten the use of so-called combat nuclear weapons,to try to gain a military advantage in Ukraine. The probability of using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine has increased from 1-5 percent at the beginning of the war to 20-25 percent today. These figures are cited by former US Secretary of Defense and CIA Director Leon Panetta in an article for Politico with reference to intelligence analysts.
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“Precisely because the use of any nuclear weapon is so unthinkable, Putin cannot be allowed to continue his threats without understanding the full consequences for him and his regime. He says he is 'not bluffing'. We cannot afford to be 'bluffing' either.” , – the ex-minister notes.
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While the United States and our NATO allies must continue to publicly warn of the “catastrophic” consequences of reckless nuclear weapons use, we must be clear: If the Kremlin makes the reckless decision to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the United States will respond with direct military force against Russian forces. who are waging war in Ukraine, thereby ensuring Putin's defeat. We must be prepared to use US military assets, including combat aircraft and cruise missile strikes, to prevent Putin from threatening Ukraine with nuclear weapons.
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While the administration will need to be vague about exactly what forces it will deploy, it should signal that it could include the full range of conventional capabilities we have in our arsenal that Putin knows will devastate his military. In the Indo-Pacific, President Joe Biden has made it clear that US forces will be used to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack. The same promise should apply to Ukraine if Putin decides to use nuclear weapons.
Also read: Biden doubts Putin will dare to use nuclear weapons
Now the Kremlin is waging a war on two fronts — in Ukraine and in Russia itself. A well-planned Ukrainian offensive forces Russian troops to retreat, while a beleaguered Putin tries to mobilize new recruits amid growing dissent in Russia. This combination undermines Moscow's facade of invincibility. Fake elections in the Russian-controlled territories of Ukraine will not change the reality of what is happening.
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Russia's hopes for support from China and India have not come true
The course of the war has changed, and Putin's war is failing. He faces setbacks not only on the battlefield and at home, but also from those he relied on for support abroad. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it clear that he has serious “questions and concerns” about the conduct of the war. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was even more direct when he recently told Putin that now was “not the time for war.”
“Hawkish voices in Moscow loudly criticize the conduct of the war, and nationalists on Russian television try to tactfully imply that Putin has bad advisers. Meanwhile, other brave local politicians in both Moscow and St. Petersburg called on Putin to resign,” the article says.
Read also: The Pentagon did not confirm reports of the transfer of nuclear weapons to the Russian Federation< /p>
Predictions about the war and the fate of Putin are always risky. But the lessons of history cannot be ignored: nations cannot afford to appease or intimidate bullies. The only message tyrants understand is force. The United States, NATO, and Ukraine have made it clear that they remain united in opposing Putin's aggression. This unity and support is critical to success.
Ukraine's ability to control the battlefield depends on the availability of both material resources and manpower. In hardware, it (Kyiv) now has an increasingly greater advantage. America and our NATO allies sent artillery and missiles with enough range and precision to change the battlefield. Ukraine now has the ability to see and reliably strike enemy ammunition depots, command centers, and logistics hubs far behind the front lines. Russia's perceived superiority in the air was suppressed by mobile air defense.
Grieving families made mobilization in Russia much more difficult
Ukraine's advantage in professional personnel is also growing. Putin's initial force of 200,000 men was never sufficient to withstand the invasion process or occupy Ukraine. Russia suffered heavy losses — according to some estimates, 70,000 to 80,000 of its soldiers were killed or wounded. Grieving families in Russia have made it much more difficult for Putin to mobilize additional recruits. He reaps the whirlwind of his lies and deception.
Read also: More than 200 “denazified” Russians: how the last days on the southern front passed
This is both a dangerous and a pivotal moment for Ukraine—dangerous because Putin might well go nuclear, but pivotal because success in Ukraine could send a clear message to all democracies that brave fighters and countries can stand up to rogues around the world. . This is one of those special moments in history when the United States and our allies must demonstrate the importance of global leadership in the 21st century.
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“If Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the United States must respond with military force. It is simply impossible to allow Russia to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine,” sums up the head of the Pentagon from 2011 to 2013.
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