Factors indicate a unique window of opportunity
If the idea of EU candidate status for Ukraine does not in itself cause rejection among European countries, the idea of granting this status in June at the EU Council gives rise to a number of objections. Instead of looking for arguments as to why this should be done in June, arguments are being voiced as to why this may not happen next month, writes Alyona Hetmanchuk, director of the New Europe Center.
She warns that the factors indicate a unique window of opportunity due to the unprecedented support of Ukraine's future EU membership in European societies. At the same time, such a high level of solidarity with Ukraine and sympathy for Ukraine may begin to “evaporate” in a few months.
Today there are two key caveats , which now sound against the status of a candidate for Ukraine in all major skeptical capitals. The expert warns that, paradoxically, they are not directly related to Ukraine:
Hetmanchuk writes that the first half 'connected with the need to complete the EU's internal reform before increasing the list for enlargement.
“It is often in this context that we continue to hear about changes in the decision-making process. The capitals of the founding countries are nostalgic for the EU-15, when the question of the EU's capacity has not met with constant resistance to decision-making from individual member states. Especially if these countries, like Hungary, have problems with the rule of law, “the expert wrote.
The second argument has to do with the Western Balkans, she said.
“There are serious concerns in a number of European capitals: Ukraine should not overtake the Western Balkans in the process of approaching membership, because it is unfair and wrong for them, because they have been in the process for so long, we cannot offer anything to Ukraine without offering any. progress to them. The biggest concerns, especially in Berlin, were about Northern Macedonia and Albania, with which the EU has long been unable to start accession negotiations (particularly due to the blockade of Northern Macedonia by Bulgaria). Although in reality – and we have been conveying this message in the three capitals for the last two weeks – it is unfair to make Ukraine hostage to the EU-Western Balkans dialogue, ”Hetmanchuk said.
Learned from the experience of the Western Balkans, the EU is afraid to give Ukraine candidate status, realizing that it is unlikely to open membership talks in the near future.
“This means driving Ukraine into the same trap of 'membership or nothing' that some Western Balkan countries have been in for decades.” warns Hetmanchuk.
Read more about “confrontation with reality” and suggestions on how to overcome it by June in the article Alona Hetmanchuk EU candidate status: who and why is ready to refuse Ukraine. “
