Putin's Chechen ally should show strength to its enemies both at home and abroad, but it will not be able to do so without its fighters.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is, of course, Vladimir Putin's war. But if there is anyone else whose name and reputation will be tied to Moscow's devastation, it is Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. His fighters took part in the first wave of the offensive, many were killed at the airfield in Gostomel. In particular, the Ukrainian military killed one of the key commanders of the Kadyrovites.
This was reported by The Guardian, adding that elite Chechen forces also took part in attempts to kill members of the Ukrainian government in the first 48 hours of the invasion, as evidenced by Western intelligence. Also recently, the Kadyrovites were seen as part of the Russian troops occupying Mariupol. The Chechen leader himself posted a video on social media in which he claimed to be in Ukraine and threatened Kyiv residents with a “personal visit.”
Ukrainian intelligence believes that the video was a false boast. And Kadyrov rented it at home in Chechnya. Data collected from telephone and Internet networks show that he never crossed the Ukrainian border. And even Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to confirm the authenticity of the video, noting that the Russian government has no information about Kadyrov's possible trip to Ukrainian territory. But, despite the falsity, the video has become an important element of propaganda. He talks about how closely and with great enthusiasm Kadyrov linked himself to this war. He seems to see the invasion of Ukraine as a chance to strengthen his power and authority. By sending fighters, Kadyrov is trying to prove his loyalty to the Russian leader, whose patronage was the basis for his own regime in Chechnya.
“Thousands, maybe tens of thousands of Chechens hate him. There are many families who are secretly seeking revenge on him and his family. Kadyrov understands that if he wants to survive, he needs Russia and Vladimir Putin's support. That is why he wants to show absolute loyalty, to prove his usefulness, – said Emil Solomon Aslan, an expert at the Institute for Political Studies at Charles University in Prague.
The Kadyrovites are, in a sense, irregular forces that Russia attracts. Chechen commanders and Russian intelligence are in constant conflict. Sometimes this results in public fights. The Kadyrovites are poorly integrated into the Russian Armed Forces. All video fighters emphasize that they are under Kadyrov's command, not Russian military generals.
Unlike the Russians, the Chechen troops carry mobile phones, write on social networks and call the events in Ukraine a war, ignoring the Kremlin's demands to speak exclusively of a “special military operation.” But despite everything, their prominent role in the war is a contribution to Kadyrov's image, a public demonstration that the country's large army really depends on his Chechen gang. This month, he launched a Telegram channel in Arabic, apparently trying to capitalize on his popularity. This is a big step for a small Russian region where Arabic is not even spoken. He tried to present the mobilization as something that supports the whole Chechen society. School teachers instructed students to make lists of people who had a place at home to shelter “refugees.” And some officials allegedly gave their monthly salaries as donations to the war. For Putin, the Chechens are experienced fighters, hardened in street fighting to the point of exhaustion. Kadyrov's reputation as a fierce favorite is also a tool.
“Kadyrov has extensive experience in conducting so-called purges against civilians. And his fighters can be used as a psychological tool against peaceful Ukrainians. The obvious threat is simple: if you do not give up, you will face the same fate that has already befallen peaceful cities in Georgia and Chechnya, “said Alexander Kvakhadze, a researcher at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies.
“Also, the older generation of Chechen fighters participated in the defense of Grozny during the war against Russia. Therefore, Russian commanders are convinced that in a sense, these forces have skills that can be used in Ukraine, especially during the siege of Mariupol, “the expert added.
Kadyrov rules Chechnya as his property and rules with fear and violence. He may even be an example for the Russian leader, who is sliding into an even deeper autocracy amid the collapse of the Russian economy under the pressure of sanctions. The Chechen leader has traditionally provided the Kremlin with an alternative to the law enforcement system by collecting data and destroying political enemies. The publication reminds that in 2015, five Chechens were convicted for the murder of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov.
But now the Kremlin is looking for someone to blame for the failure in Ukraine. One of the FSB chiefs is already under house arrest. Therefore, Chechen data collection capabilities could be even more useful for the Russian government, given the historical differences between them and Russian intelligence services. Many Chechens felt sent like cannon fodder to a poorly planned war. Now they seem to be focusing on the battles in the media, trying to recruit new staff and strengthen the image of their leader.
The publication writes that Kadyrov promises volunteers 2.3 thousand dollars and another thousand dollars a month with bonuses for successful operations. Such proposals are made through martial arts coaches, who encourage young students to sign contracts. But the Chechens do not seem in a hurry to do so, remembering the brutal massacre on the Ukrainian fronts.
“Video and metadata show that most of the Chechen forces are located 20 kilometers from the lines of conflict. And the only thing they do is record videos to motivate people in the middle of Chechnya and promote the fighting image of Kadyrov and his troops, “Kvahadze said, adding that all efforts to lure” volunteers “by offering them a generous fee did not work.
Kadyrov has another reason to fight. At least two brigades formed from the Chechen diaspora are fighting side by side with the Ukrainian army. These people hate Kadyrov and would like to overthrow him. Therefore, he needs to show his strength to his enemies at home and abroad. But to do so, he needs to maintain his strength to maintain a brutal regime.
“Kadyrov seems to have been shocked by the scale of the Ukrainian resistance. And dozens, if not hundreds, of his people were killed. He has many fighters, about 12,000. But if he wants to stay in power, he needs these people, “Aslan said.
“If they suffer too much in Ukraine, it could affect Kadyrov. This may explain why he withdrew some of his forces. He wants to prove himself as a tough leader of strong fighters, ready to sacrifice himself. But I am not sure that they are really ready to sacrifice their lives, “the expert added.
