The Kremlin will be able to claim even the slightest achievement for victory, so the West must help Ukraine defeat Russian aggression.
The last week has provided even more evidence that Russia has acknowledged its inability to achieve its goal of conquering Ukraine by military force. Against the background of negotiations, the Russian army abandoned attempts to encircle Kiev . And there were considerations that this may be due to the primary goal of the Russian war to capture only the territory in the east of the country.
Even before that, the peaceful dialogue between Russia and Ukraine began to move to a phase of more substantive discussions. Although in the past, Moscow simply announced its ultimatums, writes The Guardian. Russia's statement about the reduction of operations around Kiev and the concentration of the offensive in Donbass is the rare case when the words of the Russian Ministry of Defense turned out to be true. The “rupture of patterns” is not that Russia is really doing what it says. It is unclear why she produces such ads at all.
Russia has called the withdrawal of its forces from Kiev as a concession to allegedly “strengthen mutual trust” in the talks. But it was obvious that the Russian offensive on this front had failed and in some cases was repulsed by the Ukrainian army. The reversal of operations in the east and the overthrow of defeated Russian units on the northern flank is a recognition by Moscow that it no longer has the forces needed to conquer all of Ukraine.
Read also: The Pentagon believes that under the guise of withdrawing troops near Kiev, Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine
In fact, Russia has to gather the remnants of manpower just to keep the operations going. Increasing its strength before the invasion, Moscow was withdrawing troops from all corners, including the Arctic and the Far East. Now most of these troops have been defeated in battle. Therefore, Russia is gathering all possible remnants of forces from all possible sources, including the recruitment of mercenaries in Syria.
Ukraine's current success in repelling the Russian offensive means that the entire country is not currently threatened by occupation. However, this does not mean that the risks to Ukraine's future as a sovereign country have also disappeared. Russia has repeatedly started catastrophic wars in the past, but then achieved its goal by gathering soldiers and resources on the battlefield to simply suffocate the enemy en masse. The danger is that Russia may wage a war of attrition, despite heavy losses among ill-trained soldiers or a collapse in the economy. The question is whether Ukraine will be able to maintain the interest and support of the West for as long.
Read also: Russia transfers troops from Kiev and Chernihiv to Kharkiv and Donetsk directions – Danilov
Meanwhile, Russia will continue to stage humanitarian catastrophes in order to put pressure on President Vladimir Zelensky to force him to make concessions and end the fighting. Kyiv will continue to be under threat. Refusal to attempt an offensive and capture more territory around the capital does not mean that Russia will not conduct artillery and missile shelling of Ukrainian cities.
Zelensky has already hinted that Ukraine's neutral status would be an acceptable concession to end the war. But such a way out is in itself a danger. Zelensky knows better than anyone that neutrality with “security guarantees” is exactly the status that Ukraine had ten years ago. And he did not prevent Russia from occupying Crimea and starting a war in Donbass. For this to have any significance, the same words need to hide a completely different international status. In addition, there is a danger that a temporary ceasefire, so strongly supported by the West, could escalate into a permanent division of the country, which will consolidate Russia's territorial conquests.
Read also: Russia strikes from the air in four directions – the Pentagon
The publication writes that optimism is resisting the population in the territories that are now temporarily controlled by Russia. But it is also a fact that Moscow is very successful in suppressing any resistance movement by using brutal force against the civilian population. If Moscow wants to consolidate its power in the territories it now controls, the only thing that can thwart its plans is a more assertive offensive by the Ukrainian army.
In the end, much will depend on what Russia itself calls “victory.” It has already redrawn its original goals of war. Because the ones she had at first she couldn't reach. The notion that Ukrainians are supposedly just “confused Russians” who are just waiting to be liberated from the “Nazis” in Kiev was dispelled by the first contact with reality in Ukraine. No one throws themselves into Russian arms. And Moscow has to pay dearly for every inch of Ukrainian territory.
Read also: Russia can not be given any hope of victory – French Foreign Minister
So no matter what “victory” she is satisfied with, it is unlikely that this will be what Russia wanted to achieve in the first place. But this is not important, because the Kremlin is holding public opinion very firmly, convincing the population that the “war of liberation” is continuing. In fact, Russia's proclamation of victory does not necessarily have to have anything to do with the real outcome of the war.
But if Putin ends the war with the conviction that Russia has not lost, it will be a serious problem. Nothing will stop him from planning new wars in order to conquer the peoples whose existence he calls a “mistake.” It will take time for Russia to build its army and reorient its economy so that it can survive under sanctions. Putin's ambitions will be replaced by only one thing – a clear and indisputable defeat, which will not be hidden behind new inventions about what Moscow allegedly wanted to achieve when it started the war. Now, as at the beginning of this aggression, the West must help Ukraine inflict this defeat on Russia.
See the special topic: the Russian Federation did not have and does not have control over the Ukrainian sky – the Air Force of the APU The command prepared for war and brought equipment and people out of the attack. We must be ready for Russia's use of chemical weapons – Danilov Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council commented on the fakes of the Russian Federation about Ukrainian biological weapons. We are quick to recognize Ukraine as a candidate for EU membership – the President of the European Parliament of the EU will make every effort to restore Ukraine after the war and recognizes Russia's aggression as an “attack on the world order.” China at government level authorized cyber attacks on Ukraine before Russia's attack – The Times Malicious software led to the Chinese army's management servers. The Economist: All Europe needs Ukraine's victory in the war The Ukrainian army has shown that, with the right support, it can dispel Moscow's imperialist myths by providing stable security for the entire continent.
