Even if Kyiv agrees not to join a military alliance with the West, Putin is dreaming of something else.
Against the background of the continuation of fierce battles, as well as secret and not-so-secret peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow, the idea of Ukraine's “neutrality” again sounds like a key condition for Vladimir Putin to end the war he has waged. They say that Ukrainians have ceased to be neutral, leaning towards the West and refusing to deal with Moscow's rulers. And that is why the Russian president allegedly declared war.
Under certain conditions, President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to the Kremlin's demands. Therefore, the so-called “Finnishization” of Ukraine will once again be promoted as a potential solution that the West will consider satisfactory for ending the current crisis and lifting sanctions against Russia.
But, according to The Atlantic, lifting all restrictions on Moscow in such circumstances would be a grave mistake. Unlike Soviet rules for Finland during the Cold War, Putin's conditions for ending hostilities will not end the war against Ukraine as soon as it becomes neutral. After World War II, Moscow allowed Finland to maintain its democracy and market economy in exchange for not joining NATO or Western economic and political bodies. It is no coincidence that Finland became a member of the EU only after the collapse of the Soviet Union. But relations between Helsinki and the Kremlin during the Cold War are very different from those between Ukraine and Putin's Russia today.
Ukraine is much more important to Moscow than Finland was to the USSR. It plays a central role in both Russia's identity and the political imperatives of the Putin regime's survival. Helsinki is not Kyiv. Putin continues to repeat that Ukrainians and Russians are supposedly “one people.” The attitude of the USSR towards the Finns was not like that at all. More importantly, a democratic, politically stable, and economically dynamic, West-oriented Ukraine is a deadly threat to Putin's militaristic dictatorship in stagnation. Sooner or later, Russians will begin to ask why our neighbors in the southeast are free and getting richer, and we are daily suffering a repressive government and losing income
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” Putin does not need a “neutral” Ukraine. He needs a failed Ukraine. He wants to create one. There is no mythical threat to NATO. That's what the invasion is about, “the article reads.
In addition to promising not to join a defense alliance with the West, Russia will also demand “demilitarization,” that is, disarming the Ukrainian army and depriving it of its modern means of defense. Putin will also demand recognition of Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, as well as the “independence” of Donetsk and Luhansk, which will in fact be Russian enclaves inside Ukraine. Until now, Zelensky has rejected these attacks on his country's sovereignty, offering to hold talks on Crimea for 15 years, and insisting on discussing the status of Donetsk and Luhansk directly with Putin. But how long will the Ukrainian president be able to resist while Russian invaders kill Ukrainian citizens and destroy cities? How long will it be before the West puts pressure on him: softly or otherwise, pushing for a “solution”?
Above all else in the world, the democratic West wants peace, and Putin needs victory. He is well aware of these differences between Moscow's goals and Ukraine's Western allies. And it works in his favor. Time is on his side. Moreover, as in the case of the Minsk agreements related to Ukraine after Russia's military advance in Donbass in 2015, Moscow will insist that Ukraine fulfill its part of its obligations before Russia fulfills its own. But given that Moscow has rejected any international mediation, who will confirm that Russian troops have completely withdrawn from Ukrainian territory? Experience shows that Putin will definitely leave the numerous forces in Donetsk and Luhansk, calling them “peacekeepers”, as happened in Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Read also: FT: Ukraine's neutrality will not stop Russian war
Moreover, who will guarantee that Russia will meet all the requirements? Or who will make her do it if necessary? Zelensky has compiled a list of potential guarantors, which includes the United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Poland and Turkey. However, despite all the Russian atrocities and Putin's nuclear allusions, all these countries have responded coolly to Zelensky's invitation to go to war against Russia if the peace deal is again violated by the Kremlin. Without international security guarantees for Ukraine, there is no doubt that Russia will see the peace agreement as a right to aggressively interfere in Ukrainian politics.
The current invasion is likely to be only the first step in Putin's long-term plan to systematically demoralize and plunder Ukraine. The ultimate goal is to subject it to Russian control. Of course, stopping the Russian massacre may seem worth forcing Kyiv to make all the concessions Moscow demands. But the West definitely needs to stop pinning its vain hopes on “Finnishization” as a potential solution. It will not provide a lasting peace that will preserve Ukraine's independence, but will only temporarily cease fire in Putin's long-term war aimed at destroying Ukraine's sovereignty. Recognition of this reality is very important in order to thwart the Kremlin's plans. similar to NATO Article 5. This means that an attack on our state will be considered an attack on all signatories. Chaly also noted that if they agree, our side agrees to permanent neutrality, non-alignment and non-nuclear. But nothing should contradict Ukraine's right to join the EU.
The head of the Ukrainian delegations David Arahamiya told who Ukraine wants to see as signatories of security guarantees. He also said that the document will not apply to the temporarily occupied territories of Donbass and Crimea, as there are still unresolved issues.
Earlier the United States declared its readiness > to act as one of the guarantors of Ukraine's security. The same thing was said in Germany and Italy . At the same time, British Deputy Prime Minister Dominique Raab said that London will consider Ukraine's request , but he ruled out accepting the guarantees that NATO countries have.
See special topic: Russia supports what it demanded before the war in Ukraine's draft agreement, and does not share Arahamia's optimism. Peskov called Ukraine a “difficult and hostile country to Russia” A fake about “brotherly nations” is cracking at the seams. Italian Foreign Ministry: “Italy is ready to act as a guarantor of Ukraine's neutral status” The Italian Foreign Minister said that the country's priority is to continue the negotiation process. Ukraine's position on the peace treaty: Kuleba said that Russia has not yet responded, Lavrov says – are preparing According to Dmitry Kuleba, the position of Russia will be clear whether the Russians continue to speak the language of ultimatums or have moved on to constructive discussion. Podoliak announced the start of a new round of talks between Ukraine and Russia Negotiations are taking place online.
