The publishing house talked to experts and prepared 5 scenarios of how the situation in Ukraine can develop further.
A month ago, the Russian army launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine . During this time, despite the rapid progress of the first days, the movement of the occupiers slowed down, writes CNN. Western experts have tried to predict how the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue.
1. Intensification of bombings by Russia
The only community / facebook
The more strikes on the ground inflicted on the Russian occupiers, the more likely it is that air bombings will intensify, CNN experts say.
At the same time, Jeffrey Menkoff, a fellow at the US Institute for National Strategic Studies, says: “Russia still has the capabilities and reserves (for hostilities – Ed.), And will increase (their – Ed.) Intensity as it strives to attract more troops. “
However, there may come a time when losses will outpace the replenishment of reserves and it will be difficult for Russia to maintain the pace of the operation, no matter what.
2. Surrounding Ukrainian troops in the East
Marian Kushnir / Radio Liberty
The best troops of the Russian army are now sent to the zone of the Joint Forces Operation in Luhansk and Donbas, in the direction of Mariupol, Melitopol and Berdyansk. “They were created to fight NATO,” said Sam Cranny-Evans, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute.
Although Russia's efforts were primarily focused on Kiev , Russia can now try to encircle the Ukrainian military in the east, just in the environmental protection zone.
The expert also added that the Western media, focusing on Russia's losses and Ukraine's disobedience, gives a false sense of the dynamics of the war: “If we look at the maps, it becomes clear that Russian troops have really advanced far … The Russian government has many more Ukrainian citizens than three weeks ago. “
Read also: Ukrainian military took in the ring occupied Irpen, Bucha and Gostomel
3. Talks in negotiations
Mikhail Podoliak / Twitter
The war in Ukraine could be a protracted conflict. And although Russia has been involved in long-term conflicts in the past, now, given the heavy losses, it may begin to take the negotiations seriously.
“Negotiations are the only area where everything looks promising, because both Russia and Ukraine said last week that they are moving towards a real substantive discussion, instead of Russian ultimatums,” said Keir Giles, an expert at Chatham House.
At the same time, US officials are less optimistic. Thus, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that a diplomatic solution to the war is unlikely because Russia's actions “are in stark contrast to any serious diplomatic efforts to end the war.”
He also suggested that Russia could escalate and use chemical weapons.
4. Mass deportations of Ukrainians to Russia
Verkhovna Rada / Telegram
It is already known about the forced eviction of thousands of Mariupol residents to the Russian Federation. It is reminiscent of Soviet-era deportations, particularly in the Baltics, says Cair Giles. Then, after the occupation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania at the beginning of World War II, Stalin deported thousands of civilians to the territory of the then Russian SSR.
5. Millions more Ukrainians will flee the country
Kovalchuk Victor / UNIAN
The war provoked the largest refugee movement in Europe since World War II. More than 3.5 million Ukrainians have already left the country. These numbers increase by about 100,000 people a day. Given the number of internally displaced persons, 10 million Ukrainians have fled their homes. This is about a quarter of the country's population.
Past wars show that refugees often do not return home. Sometimes the threat of another war is enough to force refugees to stay abroad.
And this is what the negotiators need to think about in the first place. After all, even if a diplomatic solution can be found to end this war, the question remains whether this is enough to prevent the next one, concludes analyst Kenny-Evans.
Read also: Leaders of “L / DNR” are afraid of DRG and counteroffensive of APU because in Donbass there were no combat-ready divisions – mass media
Earlier we reported that the Ukrainian military pushed back fights with the Russian occupiers within the limits of the Nikolaev and Kherson areas. Also north of Kiev, fighting continues , the infidels were taken in a semicircle. There was an active struggle in Irpen and Gostomel.
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