Inflation in Ukraine: the NBU was wrong with its forecasts for July

The cost of fuel and the prices of fruits and vegetables slightly restrained the overall increase in prices in July.

The rate of price growth in July accelerated to 22, 2% (from 21.5% in June). In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.7%. Although this is less than the forecast of the National Bank, which became possible due to slower growth in the cost of fuel and prices for fruits and certain vegetables. This is reported by the National Bank.

“Actual consumer inflation accelerated as expected, but was somewhat lower than the trajectory of the basic forecast published in the Inflation Report for July 2022,” the message reads.

Rate of price growth for processed food products increased to 22.6% y/y. Meat and fish products, butter, confectionery and soft drinks have become more expensive. The prices of sunflower oil rose against the background of expectations for increased exports and its high value on world markets.

The growth in the value of non-food products accelerated.(up to 11.7% y/y), including cars, household goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals and personal care products. The decline in prices for clothing and footwear slowed down.

The growth of cost of services accelerated to 14.9% y/y. The cost of services related to housing repair grew at a higher rate, against the background of significant demand from citizens who returned to their places of residence, and a shortage of certain consumables and labor.

Growth in raw food prices accelerated to 37.5% y/y. Cereals rose in price at a faster rate due to depletion of stocks and reduced supplies. The increase in the cost of eggs has resumed, which is explained by the increase in business production costs, including energy. The price of pork has accelerated rapidly due to the reduction in the number of pigs. Thanks to the expansion of supply, including from households, the growth of prices for seed vegetables and fruits was slower than the NBU expected.

The rate of increase in fuel prices decreased to 77.7 y/y. The main reasons are the gradual saturation of the market due to the adjustment of logistics and the restoration of competition.

Read also: The State Statistics Service released inflation data for June: Ukrainians should have their salaries indexed

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As ZN.UA wrote, with ordinary Ukrainians must live with the thought of unrelenting inflation, realizing already now that economy and frugality are their main weapons on this front. Oleksandr Boltyan, an analyst at the Esperio company, writes about this in the article – “Time to change the financial habits of Ukrainians”.

Based on materials: ZN.ua

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