The Russian autocrat, in fact, imposes sanctions against Russian energy sources with his own hands when he demands to pay for them in rubles.
Is Vladimir Putin as “evil a genius” as he is thought to be? Can he still be just an evil idiot, as his actions show? His insistence that Germany and other NATO countries buy Russian gas for rubles has been further evidence that he is still an idiot.
Lawrence Kotlikoff, a professor of economics at Boston University, writes about this in an article for Forbes, explaining why Putin's demands are “nonsense of the highest rank.” The idea that payments in rubles for energy will somehow support the ruble, and thus reduce Russian imports, is meaningless. However, the media still picked her up and reproduced her. Kotlikoff insists: the ruble will not help.
Take for example at least Germany. She bought Russian energy for the euro. The transaction assumes that in this process, Moscow will have more euros, and Berlin – more energy. But Putin is demanding that Germany use rubles instead of euros. As a result, there is an additional obstacle in the way that Putin forces the German buyer to jump. The euro will be converted into rubles, which will then be paid for Russian gas. The result of the transaction will be exactly the same: Berlin will have more energy, and Moscow – the same amount of euros.
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As for the creation of additional German demand for Russian currency, it will not affect the ruble. At the same time, the demand for rubles from Gazprom, an exporter of Russian energy, will completely disappear. Why? Because companies will no longer pay in euros, which he would then have to exchange for rubles. Yes, Gazprom was likely to set aside some part of the euro. But now the law requires him to sell 80 percent of his foreign exchange reserves. As for the remaining 20%, it does not matter where Gazprom will keep them: on its own account or on the Central Bank account. The company is completely under the control of the Russian government. So, if Moscow needs euros, it can take them from Gazprom. Actually, this is what requires the law on the mandatory sale of 80% of foreign exchange reserves.
Putin's cosmetic demand to pay in rubles for energy will bring no economic benefit if Germany or other enemies of Russia agree to comply. But obeying Putin's dictates, even without economic consequences, is not something NATO countries will agree to. Just as they agreed to the Kremlin's demand to “pack the euro in small boxes with the Russian flag” before sending them to Putin. This will not happen.
And what will happen? NATO countries will not comply. And Putin will be forced to stop selling them gas and oil or lose face. That is why he will impose the most important possible sanctions against Russia with his own hands – to ban the export of Russian energy.
“In short, Putin will shoot Russia in the head again. His friends need to do their best to change the direction he is aiming for, ”the article reads.
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According to The Economist, NATO has not expanded enough to contain Russia . If US and Alliance troops were on Ukrainian territory, Russia would be responsible for waging war against NATO. But when Russia's war against Ukraine is over, the Alliance will have a chance to correct that mistake.
