Inflation will decline in 2023.
The international rating agency Fitch predicts a worsening of the economic situation in Ukraine, which is facilitated by hostilities, a high budget deficit, the contraction of the Ukrainian economy, an increase in the national debt, a decrease in foreign exchange reserves and a decrease in export revenues.
All this, according to the agency, threatens further growth of inflation, devaluation of the national currency, and in the future even default, i.e. bankruptcy of the state.
Read also: Even during inflation control, its growth in Ukraine may exceed 20% – head of the NBU
According to the forecast of Fitch analysts, inflation, which accelerated to 21.5% in June, will grow to 30% by the end of 2022.
This will happen due to the weak influence of the state's monetary policy, further disruptions in supply chains ok, problems with finances and high world prices for stored raw materials, primarily energy resources.
Inflation in Ukraine in 2023 will be slightly lower, about 20%, partly due to devaluation of the hryvnia.
Read also: NBU published business expectations of businesses regarding the possible level of inflation and the exchange rate of the hryvnia for the next 12 months
We remind you that the National Bank of Ukraine has increased the official exchange rate of the dollar to the hryvnia by 25% to 36.5686 hryvnias/dollar since July 21, 2022. Before that, since February 24, the exchange rate was fixed at the level of UAH 29.2549 per dollar. Because of this, the dollar jumped to almost 40 hryvnias in the capital's exchange offices. At the same time, the regulator stated that the decision to fix the official exchange rate of the hryvnia at the new level will not have a significant impact on prices.
