Russia's chemical arsenal is too old and dangerous even for Russian soldiers themselves, who are also unlikely to know how to use such weapons.
Given the failures of the Russian war against Ukraine, is growing fear that Vladimir Putin may dare to use chemical or biological weapons against the Ukrainian military and civilians. But how realistic is that?
This was written in an article for the Atlantic Council by Ben Connable, a professor at Georgetown University who specializes in security research. He notes that the Russian autocrat is well aware that chemical and biological weapons are particularly terrifying. But using such ammunition is difficult and dangerous, even for well-trained professional soldiers. And there is little reason to believe that the Russian military will be able to do so successfully.
Chemical weapons that cause neuro-paralytic reactions, burns and suffocation, designed to kill or maim victims. For example, Russia used the poison “Newbie” in an attempt to kill a political opponent in Salisbury in 2018. Biological agents such as ricin and botulism either kill or render people incapacitated. For example, shortly after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, unknown assailants sent envelopes with anthrax in an attempt to assassinate members of the US Congress.
“I myself experienced the fear of a chemical attack when I inspected a suspicious shell that did not explode during the 1991 Gulf War, as well as during the 2003 invasion of Iraq. I didn't know for sure if my chemical protection suit fit well and if there was a crack somewhere that could threaten me with untold suffering. Fortunately, nothing terrible happened. These were false alarms. But even such unfounded fears were very sobering, “Connabl writes.
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Others were less fortunate. Dictator Saddam Hussein used poison gas to kill thousands of Iranian soldiers during the Iran-Iraq war. He also used chemical weapons to kill many thousands of his own citizens. Syrian civilians have recently faced deadly chemical attacks by the Russian-backed Syrian regime.
The author acknowledges that Russia has significant reserves of chemical and biological weapons. Moscow's promises to destroy the last remnants of Soviet arsenals are more credible than propaganda stories on Russian television. However, owning such a terrible weapon is one thing, and using it is quite another. The author believes that there are at least three reasons why trying to use chemical or biological weapons against Ukraine will end badly for Russia itself.
There is no doubt that if a chemical or biological attack takes place on Ukrainian territory, everyone will understand who is to blame. Experts believe that Moscow will try to disguise itself as an operation under a “false flag” to deny its responsibility. It may even try to give the impression that the Ukrainian military is attacking its own population in order to discredit Russia. Or the Russian side may even try to blame NATO for everything. It may affect the domestic public, but foreign leaders and reporters will no longer buy it. Western intelligence and expertise will not allow the Russian army to secretly deploy biological or chemical weapons. Russia has failed to conceal the use of classified poison in an assassination attempt on individuals. And large-scale attacks on the battlefield, she will not be able to hide.
Also, the chances of fatal mistakes will be very high. The delivery of chemical or biological weapons is an extremely difficult task that must be performed by very well-trained and experienced professionals. It is unlikely that the Russian Air Force, Land or Missile Forces have the skills needed to safely and effectively deliver such lethal munitions from warehouses to their locations.
First of all, it is necessary to transport such weapons without accidents. Some containers, bombs and shells are too old. And their hulls can leak. Then you need to prepare weapons for use from the air, with a missile or artillery weapon. This means that soldiers in full protective suits must handle such ammunition with care. After all, the risk is extremely high, even under ideal conditions. Even before the attack, Russian soldiers will be in great danger due to a potential catastrophic mistake.
It is also important to note that Russian ground forces will not be able to benefit from a chemical or biological attack. The use of such weapons will undoubtedly cause terror, death and injury. But biological or chemical weapons are not magic. It will not kill anyone it touches. And converted into weapons gases are not able to capture or hold territory. The shelling of large cities by chemical munitions will kill civilians, but will not weaken the determination of the Ukrainian or Western armies. Quite the opposite.
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Chemical weapons were commonly used to weaken the enemy before a ground offensive. The soldiers wore protective suits and went on the offensive in the infected area. At the same time, protected conveyors are used, followed by additional trucks with spare protective equipment. Given the current state of the Russian army in Ukraine, as well as the fact that soldiers in Russia have hardly received the necessary training, the use of chemical and biological weapons is simply impossible. If the Russian army tries to enter an infected environment, it will face the same suffering as the victims. The author notes that theoretically Russian troops can attack Ukraine with chemical or biological weapons. But they will not be able to do it effectively and without great risk to their own forces.
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