This is the only thing that will force the Kremlin to really sit down at the negotiating table and negotiate peace.
Ukraine's bold and brilliant response to the Russian attack is fair aroused the admiration of the whole world. But we must not forget that the danger continues to increase. Russia's offensive on Kyiv and neighboring regions failed. In its new strategy, Moscow has focused on eastern and southern Ukraine, where it can still succeed.
If that happens, Russia will turn Ukraine into an economically crippled, landlocked country. The Russian army will threaten it from three sides, threatening a new invasion. Much more military assistance will be needed from the West to avoid such a catastrophic outcome. Farid Zakaria, an American journalist and influential political analyst, writes about this in the pages of the Washington Post.
In the first weeks of the fighting, military researcher and strategist Ken Kasapoglu noted quite accurately that two wars were unfolding in Ukraine at once. One in the north and the other in the south. And the second of them “will be more successful” for Moscow. Russia had the opportunity to deploy troops and the necessary supplies from bases in the occupied Crimea to capture Melitopol and Kherson. Mariupol is surrounded by Russian troops. And Ukrainian forces in the city cannot get the necessary support. Ukraine's access to the Sea of Azov is blocked. And Moscow has a chance to build a land corridor between Crimea and Donbass. Russian troops are also trying to move west of Kherson in the direction of Odessa.
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The author notes that Odesa is a very big prize. As the largest port through which Ukraine trades with the world, the city plays a key role in the Ukrainian economy. Odesa is also of great symbolic significance. It was here that the revolt aboard the battleship Potemkin in 1905 was the beginning of problems for tsarist Russia. If Odesa falls, Ukraine will be cut off from the Black Sea, which will actually become a Russian lake. It is safe to say that Moscow will try to expand its military force to Moldova, where it has already occupied Transnistria. Vladimir Putin will be able to present this as a great victory: Russian-speaking people have been “liberated”, important cities and ports have been taken under control, and Ukraine has become an “unviable” state.
This cannot be allowed to happen. And the Ukrainian army is fighting hard to prevent this scenario. Russian troops are trying to attack from Kherson to Nikolaev. But they are stopped by the extraordinary courage of locals who blew up bridges on the roads to Odessa and blocked the railway. This week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used their new anti-ship missiles “Neptune”, sinking the Russian missile cruiser “Moscow”. However, it is important to remember that before the invasion, Russia spent 10 times more on the army than Ukraine. And Putin seems to be going to keep pushing, despite all the losses.
What can the United States and the West do? Virtually everything they've done so far. Ukraine needs more weapons, especially ones that would give it massive asymmetric combat power. General Mark Hertling explained that the Armed Forces needed equipment that would allow it to maneuver quickly around Russia's irreversible forces. These include Humvee armored helicopters, multiple rocket launchers and drones of all kinds. Turkish Batraktar has proven to be extremely effective. Hertling believes that Ukraine needs to hand over even more such drones, as well as American kamikaze drones and reconnaissance drones.
The Russian fleet in the Black Sea remains a major threat to Odessa. He can either lay siege to the city or land on the Ukrainian line of defense. Ukraine needs tools to help it stop Russian ships. NATO should also consider replicating its experience during the Balkan wars of the 1990s. It must impose an embargo on these waters, preventing Russian troops from entering the area or strengthening the existing contingent. NATO ships must operate in international waters, warning every ship in the waters of their activities and banning them from entering the Black Sea basin.
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< p>Admiral James Stavridis, the former commander-in-chief of NATO forces, has backed the Joe Biden administration's efforts to help Ukraine. However, he called for a more aggressive response from the West on all fronts. He wrote on Twitter that the Ukrainian Armed Forces should receive fighters, air defense systems, as well as support in cyberspace and anti-ship missiles to “sink Russian ships in the Black Sea.” Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the United States has provided $ 16 billion in aid to Ukraine. But at the same time, the world will pay Moscow 320 billion for energy this year. Economic sanctions will not force Putin to end the war if such large gaps exist. The only thing that will force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table is defeat in the south. Plan A failed. His Plan B cannot be allowed to succeed.
Earlier, CNN reported that the next key battle in the Russian-Ukrainian war would be the Battle of Sloviansk. Because the city is of key strategic importance. If the enemy can take control of it, he will have the opportunity to surround the Ukrainian army in the Donbass.
In turn, the New York Times wrote that the battle for Donbas will be extremely fierce. It will be very different from the fighting on the outskirts of Kiev, Kharkiv and Sumy. Because here the enemy knows the area better. And its logistics chains are shorter.
See the special topic: Google has published the first panoramic photos of the destroyed streets of Kyiv region Already digitized streets of Gostomel, Borodyanka and other cities . Russia's combat losses in Ukraine have reached 20,000 troops – the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine The calculation of losses is complicated by the high intensity of hostilities. Moscow cruiser drowned: as propaganda lied about it “Moscow” drowned and Kyiv stands. In the Kherson region, two people died and three were injured by rocket shrapnel All were taken to hospital in the morning. Russian occupiers fired on Vasylivka, Zaporizhia Oblast, killing one person – OVA Several residential buildings in the city center and the private sector were damaged.
