American journalists analyzed the behavior of the Russian authorities and assessed the probability of a nuclear strike on Ukraine.
Russia has repeatedly threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, which caused justified concern of the West. But is Putin actually ready to start a nuclear war, or is he just trying to blackmail Kyiv's allies? The collective material of The New York Times journalists examines the main motives of the Kremlin dictator and assesses the probability of a nuclear strike on the territory of Ukraine.
American journalists note that despite doubts about radical steps by the Russian Federation, the “nuclear rhetoric” of officials of the aggressor country still causes concern. But should we be afraid of her?
Russia has about 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons, lower-power devices designed to hit conventional targets on the battlefield. Tactical nuclear weapons have never been used in combat, but they can be used in a number of ways, including with missiles or artillery shells.
The likelihood that Putin will use nuclear weapons, remains extremely low. But the prospect of detonating even a small nuclear device is so terrifying that officials in the US and elsewhere are concerned. Thousands of people could be killed, and millions seriously ill.
“When the leader of a modern nuclear power, which is Putin, talks so recklessly and irresponsibly about the potential use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, you have to take it seriously,” the representative of the US National Security Council John Kirby told reporters on November 2 .
Read also: The use of nuclear weapons will be a disaster for Putin and Russia – Blinken
But most analysts are inclined to think that with the help of nuclear blackmail Russia is trying to deter the West from providing military aid to Ukraine. According to current and former US officials, such discussions are probably not so much real planning as Western intimidation.
Russia is trying to prevent the United States from sending modern weapons to Ukraine, such as ATACMS long-range missiles. The Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly requested these weapons, but according to former US ambassador Michael McFaul, just by talking about nuclear weapons, the Russian president is “achieving a practical military goal”, because the Biden administration has supplied Ukraine with billions of weapons dollars, but refrained from providing Kyiv with longer-range missiles, tanks and fighter jets.
“The Pentagon is not sending ATACMS. Pentagon not sending MIG-29. They don't send tanks. They are restrained by Putin,” says McFaul
Read also: WP: Putin did not launch a nuclear attack on Ukraine because he is afraid of India and China
Another argument for Moscow's nuclear threats is that Putin is trying to persuade the Ukrainian authorities to negotiate. The Kremlin hopes that nuclear threats will be enough to force Ukraine to start diplomatic negotiations and make concessions that Russia could not achieve on the battlefield.
“They are trying to put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate and give in to the Kremlin's demands. Their nuclear weapons are most useful to them when they are not using them. The use of any nuclear weapon has no advantages on the battlefield,” ex-General of the US Army Ben Hodges believes.
For account of nuclear threats Russia wants Ukraine to cede large territories to it that were illegally annexed after fake referenda this yearand 2014, when Russian troops invaded Crimea. Hodges, like many other analysts, is sure that Russia's attempts to force Ukraine to make concessions will fail. Ukrainians, in his opinion, simply do not believe that Russia will use nuclear weapons.
Read also: Bloomberg: Russia will not be able to quickly launch a tactical nuclear attack on Ukraine, the reason is given
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Previously NYT reported that in the leadership of the Russian army discussed the possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine after a series of failures on the battlefield.
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