Russia will be able to sell gas to Europe, but will not be able to spend money on it for the war.
Ukraine offers partners to apply to Russian monopolist Gazprom sanctions on the “Iranian model” – Russian gas will go to the EU, and the funds for it will be transferred not to Russia, but to special deposit accounts.
Deputy Minister of Energy of Ukraine Yaroslav Demchenko believes that Russia's pipeline gas, which accounts for 40% of total EU imports, will not be replaced quickly. And the model proposed by Ukraine could be a way out of this situation.
“We are proposing an 'Iranian model' of sanctions: natural gas is delivered from Gazprom to Europe, but all funds are kept in special deposit accounts in European banks until Russia meets certain conditions,” Demchenkova was quoted as saying by Ukrinform.
So the money will not go directly to Russia and will not finance its war against Ukraine.
“In the EU, particularly in Germany, the myth that Europe will die without Russian energy has long been cemented. In fact, the situation is quite the opposite – Russia's energy will die without Europe, “he added.
The EU remains the only large market for Russian gas. Without the European market, the Russians will have to stop and preserve their deposits, the deputy minister explains. And 70% of the gas fields will be lost during the reconstruction.
“So if (Russian dictator Vladimir ) Putin and if it decides to bluff and cut off gas supplies to Europe, it will simply destroy its gas infrastructure, “he said. Last year, the total supply of Russian LNG was less than 8%.
But the full EU embargo on Russian LNG imports will carry little risk, as these volumes may be replaced by increased production in 2022 by other suppliers, warns Demchenkov.
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As for the import of Russian oil products, the EU may abandon it completely, he said. 15% of total fuel consumption can be offset by increased domestic production and additional imports from North America and Asia.
As for crude oil, according to Demchenkov, more signals should be given to producers. “If the market sees that Europe is serious about an embargo on crude oil from Russia, there will be strong competition to replace the 'quota' of Russian oil and ensure long-term relations,” he explains.
Such an embargo should be implemented Gradually, with the immediate cessation of maritime imports of Russian raw materials and the cessation of imports through the pipeline over the next nine months.
that gas and diesel fuel can also be replaced, “Demchenkov added.
Ukraine also emphasizes the importance of sanctions against Rosatom and the embargo on nuclear fuel supplies from Russia.
