It is necessary to introduce a comparable transport blockade for Russia.
EU-imposed transport restrictions are not critical for Russia : total losses of Russian exports will amount to about 5 million euros per year (approximately 0.1% of total exports). At the same time, the total losses of Ukraine's economy from the transport blockade due to the war amount to approximately 3-5 billion dollars a month. And that's without taking into account the damage to infrastructure due to systemic bombing. Volodymyr Datsenko, the founder of the Railway without Corruption project, writes about this in his article. Light.
Ukraine risks losing a third of its GDP. In order to deal a comparable blow to Russia's economy, it is necessary to introduce a comparable transport blockade. And technically Europe is capable of that.
First, the EU may impose additional duties on the supply of the Druzhba oil pipeline, which is also part of the transport infrastructure. This will be the hardest blow for Russia. The Druzhba oil pipeline pumps up to 150,000 tons of oil a day, so it is almost impossible to quickly redirect the supply of such raw materials to other routes. In the event of an additional duty, Russia is unlikely to significantly reduce oil supplies, but will be forced to sell oil much cheaper than on the market. But to sell oil even for 50-60 dollars. per barrel of Russia is more profitable than reducing production. Thus, Europe will lose almost nothing, and the aggressor will receive much less revenue to its budget.
Second, the EU must implement a complete cessation of road freight between the Union and Belarus with Russia for all operators, not only for Russians and Belarusians. There are a large number of goods, the transportation of which by sea and rail is impractical. The Baltic states and Poland have agreed in advance to completely block road transport with the aggressor country and Belarus.
The volume of road imports from the EU to Russia is over 30 billion dollars. for a year. Some of these products can be supplied by sea, but much more expensive and longer. Therefore, the termination of road transport with Russia will exclude it from the European mainland transport connection. Russia will cease to be a full-fledged part of Europe.
Read also: Russia's losses from the transport blockade are insignificant compared to Ukraine's losses
Other materials by Volodymyr Datsenko can be found at link.
