This will lead to a softening of the nuclear rhetoric of Russian officials.
The constant talk of Russian politicians about the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is only a way to influence the determination of Kyiv's Western allies. The military command of the Russian Federation is aware that a nuclear attack will not give it any strategic advantage on the battlefield, but from the material and reputational point of view, it will have extremely serious consequences. This will affect the further de-escalation of the Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric, experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe.
According to analysts, the softening of the Russian authorities' rhetoric indicates that the senior Russian military command and Putin's circle in the Kremlin are likely to realize the huge costs for the small operational benefits that Russia would gain if nuclear weapons were used against Ukraine or NATO.
The situation was complicated by Putin's illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regionsat the end of September. According to some of the Russian military and officials, this made the existing Russian military doctrine too complicated. Since it clearly allows the use of nuclear weapons in response to “aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened”, in theory the Kremlin could take a radical step in relation to Ukraine, declaring hostilities in the annexed territories “an attack on the Russian Federation” . But neither Putin nor his inner circle have publicly announced what would now be considered such an attack.
ISW believes that high-ranking Russian military officials are confused by Putin's order to annex territories of Ukraine, most of which are not controlled by the Russian army at all. Experts point out that the Kremlin dictator's order was likely to be a polarizing issue that has divided Moscow, creating factions with one favoring war and the other favoring negotiations.
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Earlier, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said, that the risk of Russia using nuclear weapons remains low.
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