After numerous military defeats, the Russian autocrat needs to “pack” the war against Ukraine in a new wrapper to maintain the support of the population.
Before the May 9 celebrations, Russia seems to be and will not get the desired victory in the war against Ukraine. And each of its potential next steps is very dangerous. After a failed attempt to attack Kyiv, Moscow focused on trying to capture more territory in eastern Ukraine . Although its army is approaching exhaustion, sanctions are growing.
“Given the forces that remain in them, the current attempt to break through is all they are capable of. Armies are not recovering so quickly after such heavy losses. And given the effectiveness of Ukrainians with our support, I do not think that Russia is able to achieve its goals in the coming weeks. And the coming weeks will tell you exactly where this is going, “said Jeffrey Edmonds, a former director of Russia's National Security Council and CNA analyst, to The Guardian.
Given all the defeats, officials believe that Vladimir Putin is using Victory Day celebrations to “wrap up” the war against Ukraine. Potential options include escalation through the formal declaration of war or the beginning of general mobilization, as well as de-escalation through the declaration of victory. It is also possible that Putin may do something mediocre. He can praise the Russian army for its “victory” in Ukraine, but at the same time begin to prepare the population for the fact that a difficult and exhausting conflict will be the new status quo. Ukrainian officials have recently warned that Putin intends to declare the beginning of mass mobilization or openly declare war on Ukraine, attracting personnel and resources that were not available for the so-called “special operation”.
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“Russia is already conducting a secret mobilization and is preparing to announce the beginning of open mobilization in the near future. I'm just wondering: how will they explain this to their people? ” – said the head of the military intelligence of Ukraine Kirill Budanov.
The Kremlin denies preparing mobilization. Although the network has already published documents proving the preparation of such a campaign. In March, military enlistment offices began to be set on fire in Russia. In particular, it happened last week in Nizhnevartovsk. Due to formal mobilization for men of military age, the borders will suddenly become closed. And tens of thousands of reservists will have to quit their jobs and go to war. Moscow has never managed to do something like this. It will also be a powerful blow to the Russian economy, raising the price of a war that has already disappointed Russia.
“The proclamation of mobilization will make this war extremely unpopular,” said Russian military expert Pavel Luzin. He doubts that it will be technically impossible to hold it.
“And what to do with these mobilized people? Which officers and military units will deal with them? ” – added Luzin.
According to Edmonds, mobilization is not a “magic solution” that will save Putin's war. After all, while the new troops are ready to go to the front, Russia's positions on the ground “will already be broken.” Fearing defeat, Russia may also try to raise rates even higher. Recently, Russia's chief propagandist, Dmitry Kiselyov, aired a video of a simulation of Britain's nuclear destruction on Russian television. Putin may also hint at a potential nuclear war when he stands in front of armored vehicles on Red Square. In fact, on his orders, the nuclear arsenal has been participating in the parade since 2008.
“He also knows that we will listen to him. So I wouldn't be surprised if he resorted to nuclear rhetoric, “Edmonds said.
However, the expert doubts that Russia will use tactical nuclear weapons in the war against Ukraine. However, he noted that the Kremlin is becoming increasingly unpredictable.
Read also: Russia has already lost the war in Ukraine – the White House
According to another scenario, Putin may de-escalate due to a lack of potential for victory. Speaking to the military tomorrow, he may announce that Russia has achieved its main goals in Ukraine. That Ukrainian military capabilities have allegedly been destroyed, and Mariupol and Kherson have been taken under control. However, all this will also be difficult to “sell” to the Russians. Because the Ukrainian army may continue to try to recapture the occupied territories, inflicting even greater losses on the Russian army. A high-ranking Russian official arrived in Kherson last week and announced that Russia had “returned forever” to the city, hinting at Moscow's desire to retain control of the Ukrainian territory.
Ben Noble, a professor at University College London, said the Kremlin was still very vague about the goals of the war. This means that many people in Russia will be dissatisfied, no matter what Putin calls victory in the end.
“This is probably the main reason why many are now saying that the Kremlin is at a dead end. . Because it will inevitably disappoint certain groups, no matter how broadly the victory is proclaimed, “he said.
The Kremlin. And the Russian autocrat will not necessarily announce something important tomorrow.
“People want a sense of certainty, they want a new chapter in this war,” Noble said.
Political and economic pressures could force the Kremlin to end the war. But a protracted and debilitating conflict may seem better to the Russian authorities than admitting defeat.
“I think he will use May 9 to start talking about victory. Because sociologists tell us that the Russians want it all over, but somehow it's good for them, “said political scientist Anton Barbashin.
“But I expect that he will have to announce some new challenges. There can be no victory, there will be something else. Many things happen. And Putin is well aware that economic risks and problems will soon increase. That's why we need a clear vision that Russia is facing a challenge, “he said. a new challenge ”can already be seen on state television, which says that Russia is waging a war against NATO, not against Ukraine. And this allegedly justifies military defeats. The Kremlin is also dealing with an ideological problem. Because the war is already affecting ordinary Russians who do not understand why Russia invaded Ukraine in the first place.
“The more I think about it, the more I am surprised that this war has exposed the absence of any what ideology. Authorities are trying to invent something new. But none of this makes sense. The Russians don't understand what the hell Russia is doing there, “Barbashin said.
