The process of rebuilding Europe after the Second World War had many elements that could now be effectively copied for Ukrainian reconstruction.
Talk about the Marshall Plan for Ukraine have become popular. It usually starts with finding out the cost of rebuilding Ukraine after the Russian invasion. Amounts range from $ 250 billion to $ 1 trillion. It all depends on the scale of the destruction, the amount of aid to refugees, etc.
The total cost of the original post-war Marshall Plan is then compared to US GDP in 1948, when the program was launched. Discussions usually end with the conclusion that the cost of rebuilding Ukraine in relation to the size of donor countries will be at the same level as in the post-World War II period, – writes The Guardian. However, such comparisons are not really the best way to use the history of the Marshall Plan. It is impossible to determine the exact cost of reconstruction when no one can say how long the war will last and which territory will be controlled by the legitimate government of Ukraine. The fact that the United States was ready to transfer to Europe after World War II about 5% of its GDP in 1948 over a four-year period does not mean that this is exactly the money that will be needed in the Ukrainian case.
However, other aspects of history may better serve today's situation. For example, payments under the Marshall Plan began despite the fact that fighting in Europe was still ongoing. The Greek Civil War lasted until the summer of 1949. But Athens received help from the American reconstruction plan in 1948. In fact, the Greek side received $ 300 million even earlier, in 1947 under the auspices of the American Relief Mission for Greece. The structure of this organization became a model for the Marshall Plan.
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Similarly, Ukraine can already receive reasonable assistance. After all, it makes no sense to rebuild bridges, which Russia will still destroy once again. It is also worth remembering that the Marshall Plan Fund consisted of 90% of grants and only 10% of loans. There are calls today for Western countries to act as guarantors of new Ukrainian bonds. This will reduce the Ukrainian government's spending on loans and raise money for reconstruction. But it will also increase Ukraine's already high debt burden. So this way of making the process of Ukrainian reconstruction cheaper for the West will not work.
Also after World War II, the United States established a special independent agency to manage the Marshall Plan Foundation. Without the bureaucracy of the State Department, the Economic Cooperation Administration and the US Treasury, the program was able to operate quickly. She had no problem attracting private sector experts. And Paul Goffman, president of Studebaker, became the head of the Marshall Plan management agency. It also avoided conflicts with the United Nations, where the Soviet Union had enough power to create problems.
Assistance to Ukraine should also be managed by an autonomous agency, accountable only to donor governments. It will be able to consult or coordinate with the IMF and the World Bank. However, the special agency must maintain its independence, given that Russia is a member of both international organizations. The architects of the Marshall Plan recognized the need for beneficiaries to have ownership of what they received. However, they also adhered to the principle of “trust, but check”. European governments have submitted detailed plans for what they are going to spend American money on. We had to negotiate with the US Economic Cooperation. In the case of some countries, such as Greece, there were concerns about corruption. So the Economic Cooperation Administration had hundreds of agents in various Greek ministries. Governance reforms were a prerequisite for assistance under the Marshall Plan.
Of course, for Ukraine, external intervention in reconstruction will be sensitive. And this is understandable. But foreign supervision is a price to pay for foreign aid, especially given the scale of what Ukraine needs. Kyiv can increase confidence by increasing the transparency of its spending. This can be done, for example, through the public procurement program ProZorro. The Marshall Plan gave priority to rebuilding export opportunities. He acknowledged the positive effects of international competition, as well as the political benefits of European integration. Ukraine's path to EU membership is likely to be long. But it can be reduced if Western aid is structured to align Ukrainian institutions and policies with those of the EU.
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Finally, the Marshall Plan has allowed Europe to make a powerful technological leap. Before World War II, the continent lagged behind the United States for decades in terms of the transition to fast and efficient production technologies. And it was these technologies that became the basis of the golden age of post-war reconstruction. European officials, factory directors, and union leaders traveled to the United States to return with new knowledge to help increase productivity. Ukraine now also has the opportunity to make a technological leap by switching to a “green” energy system, modernizing its transport and communication infrastructure, and updating urban planning. All this, of course, is a task for Ukrainians themselves. But the West can and should help them.
See the special topic: Four “arrivals” in Poltava region The Russian occupiers struck at the Kremenchug refinery, and explosions were heard in another area. Lithuania recalls ambassador to Russia on June 1 and closes consulate in St. Petersburg The relevant draft government resolution was registered on May 12. The European Commission has provided an action plan to help Ukraine export agro-industrial products To improve EU-Ukraine connectivity, the EC will work to increase the capacity of new export corridors. The occupiers are trying to increase their military presence on Snake Island Russia wants to block Ukraine's maritime communications. Russia strengthens air defense on the west coast of Crimea – Motuzyanyk Russian troops have deployed an anti-aircraft missile battery SAM S-300V consisting of three control points.
