The vote is taking place against the backdrop of an increasingly tense security situation.
In Israel, the fifth in the last four years of parliamentary elections, designed to put an end to the political impasse in which the country found itself. This is reported by CNN.
For the first time in 13 years, former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not running as the current leader of the government. Bibi, as he is widely known in Israel, hopes to return to power at the head of a right-wing coalition, while centrist Prime Minister Yair Lapid hopes the role of acting prime minister will help him hang on to his seat.< /p>
But if the latest polls are anything to go by, it's unlikely that this round of voting will be any more successful in solving the problem than the previous four. These polls predict that Netanyahu's bloc will not have enough seats to win a majority in parliament.
As in the previous four elections, the figure of Netanyahu himself and the possibility of forming a government led by him is one of the defining issues, especially against the background of his trial in the corruption case. According to a survey conducted by the Israel Institute for Democracy (IDI) in August, a quarter of respondents said that the personality of the leader of the party they are voting for is the second most important factor in their vote.
But some leading center-right politicians who agree with Netanyahu ideologically refuse to work with him for personal or political reasons. Thus, in order to return to power, Netanyahu, the leader of the center-right Likud party, will likely depend on the support of far-right parties to form a coalition – and, if successful, will likely be forced to give their leaders ministerial posts.
Israelis are also very concerned about the cost of living after utility and food bills have risen this year. In the same IDI survey, 44% of respondents said their top priority was what the party's economic plan would do to lower the cost of living.
And security, which is always a central issue in Israeli politics, does not leave voters indifferent – 2022 was the worst year for conflict-related deaths for both Israelis and Palestinians since 2015.
Netanyahu 'on a knife's edge'
A recent selection of opinion polls compiled by the Haaretz newspaper shows that Netanyahu's bloc of parties is likely to fall short of the 61 seats needed to form the majority in the government, while the bloc led by Lapid is about four to five seats short.
According to pollsters Joshua Hantman and Simon Davis, the last week of polls saw a small jump for Netanyahu's bloc, with six polls showing him in 61st place and nine polls not. The last three polls published by the main Israeli news channels showed that his bloc could win 60 seats in the Knesset.
Aware of the need to gain one or two more seats, Netanyahu has focused his election campaign in seats that are strongholds for “Likud”. Party representatives previously stated that hundreds of thousands of potential Netanyahu voters did not participate in the vote.
Another important factor is the turnout of Arabs. Citizens who identify as Arab and have national voting rights make up about 17 percent of Israel's population, according to IDI, and their turnout could make or break Netanyahu's chances. One of the parties, the United Arab List, has warned that if Arab turnout falls below 48%, some Arab parties may fall short of the 3.25% threshold needed to win seats in parliament.
Voting environment
Along with the rapid growth of prices for products and utility services, as well as the aggravation of the situation on the housing market, the vote is taking place against the background of an increasingly tense security situation.
Earlier this year, a wave of attacks on Israelis killed 19 people, including mass attacks on civilians in Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities. The West Bank has also seen a surge in armed attacks by Palestinian forces against Israeli forces and civilian settlers this year, resulting in the deaths of several more Israeli soldiers and civilians. According to the Israel Defense Forces, there have been at least 180 shooting incidents this year, compared to 61 in 2021.
According to human rights activists, the number of attacks by Israeli settlers on Palestinians in the West Bank, and sometimes on Israeli soldiers, is also increasing.
More than 130 Palestinians have been killed this year in almost daily raids by Israeli security forces in West Bank cities. Although the Israeli military says most of them were militants or Palestinians who engaged in violent clashes with them, unarmed civilians also came under fire. militias and fears of experts that a new Palestinian intifada is already approaching.
How is the voting and formation of the government?
40 political parties are included in the ballot paper, although it is expected that only about a dozen parties will overcome the passage barrier and enter the parliament. Immediately after the polls close at 10:00 p.m. local time, the major media networks will release exit poll results, which provide the first glimpse of how the vote went, although the official tally may differ from the exit poll results.
It is expected that only about a dozen parties will overcome the minimum threshold of votes necessary to enter the parliament. After the official vote count, Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog will hand over the mandate to form a government to the leader he believes has the best chance of success, even if he is not the leader of the largest party.
That candidate will then have 42 days to try to gather enough parties to win 61 seats in the Knesset, Israel's 120-seat parliament, and form a majority government. In case of failure, the president can transfer the mandate to another candidate. If the new candidate also fails to form a government within 28 days, the mandate is returned to the parliament, which has 21 days to find a candidate, which is the last chance before new elections. Lapid will remain in the position of acting prime minister until the formation of a new government.
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