Its main goal is for the USA, NATO and the EU to agree to stop supporting Ukraine and return the Alliance to the 1997 borders.
The contours of the use of a peaceful atom for military purposes are traced in view of the fact that the first deputy head of the administration of the President of the Russian Federation, Sergei Kiriyenko, has been nominated to the leading position. He is the former head of Rosatom in 2005–2016, a hero of Russia, one of the contenders for the Kremlin. In addition to all this, he deals with the issue of Ukraine after Vladislav Surkov and Dmitry Kozak. Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”, writes about this in his material for ZN.UA “War in Europe: the Kremlin's nuclear scenario and what to do in Ukraine”.
The main idea of Kirienka may be to apply a hybrid model of mixed nuclear escalation with subsequent de-escalation according to such an approximate scheme, the contours of which are visible in the fog of rosagitprop.
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- Further escalation in the area of the Zaporizhzhya NPP (Energodar city) with inciting panic both at the local level and in Ukraine and Europe regarding a possible nuclear incident with unforeseen consequences and accusations by the Armed Forces and “Kyiv authorities” of shelling the NPP, which is a manifestation “nuclear terrorism of Kyiv”., disconnection of some consumers in the south of Ukraine with subsequent connection to the unified energy system of the Russian Federation. Transfer of the ZNPP to Russian control.
- Parallel track — pseudo-referendum on “reunification of the region with Russia”September 11 to record the “will” of the population of the occupied territories with subsequent rapid accession to the Russian Federation. The announcement after the “referendum” of the city of Energodar as a zone of increased nuclear danger on the “territory of Russia” in connection with the “aggressive actions of the Armed Forces” against the “Russian nuclear energy facility and citizens of the Russian Federation” living in the territory of the Zaporizhzhia region and neighboring regions, which “are under the occupation of the Kyiv authorities”.
- Further manipulations with the threat of detonation of warheads installed at the nuclear power plant,which can be both a bluff (inevitable defeat of one's own forces) and the peak of escalation foreseen in the scenario, the impossibility of an assault by the Energodar Armed Forces and a propaganda demonstrative “terrorist attack by the Armed Forces”. Distraction of Europe's attention from the ZNPP by stopping gas supply by Nord Stream 1, which has already been announced at the end of August – beginning of September.
- Placement (or message without the fact of placement) near Energodar of tactical nuclear weapons to create a “protective nuclear umbrella” with a simultaneous ultimatum about the threat of its use in case of ignoring it:
— Kyiv — about the cessation of hostilities and the withdrawal of the Armed Forces from the borders of the “Novorossiya” regions;
— the USA, NATO and the EU — on the termination of support for Ukraine and the return of the Alliance to the borders of 1997.
“Precisely the last one can be an escalating, according to the Kremlin's logic, completion of a “special military operation” with its further transformation into something that “has not yet started”. This does not change the essence of the aggression, but gives the regime indulgence on the continuation of the war on the part of Russian society,” Honchar explains. Related video
Read more materials by Mykhailo Honchar at the link.
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