A possible official declaration of war on Ukraine will allow Putin to declare mobilization. However, the word “war”, which is still banned in Russia, will change the attitude of Russians to what is happening in Ukraine, and not in favor of the Kremlin. Ukraine has a better chance of winning.
Declaring war and mobilization will mean acknowledging Putin's inability to lead According to experts interviewed by the Voice of America, modern warfare is not a number, but a skill.
An official declaration of war on Ukraine on May 9 is possiblewill give Putin grounds to declare a general or partial mobilization. Its goal is to make up for the heavy losses that the Russian army suffers every day during the so-called “special operation” and to try to achieve a breakthrough in its favor, which does not exist.
that Moscow may decide by May 9 to annex part of the territories in eastern Ukraine, including Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson regions. The Kremlin denies plans for general mobilization .
It is extremely difficult to predict how things will turn out, because anything can be expected from President Putin, and he has convincingly proved it to everyone, said Vyacheslav Bakhmin, co-chairman of the Sakharov Center, in a comment to the Russian Voice of America. At the same time, according to him, the version with the official declaration of war to Ukraine seems so wild and fraught with such serious consequences that it does not want to be taken seriously.
“In any case, I very much hope that nothing like this will happen,” he added. – Because otherwise it brings both the country and Europe, if not the world as a whole, to the brink of catastrophe, as I see it… This means that the decision was made at the top to bring the war to victory anything that would be terrible. I hope that there will be a less bloody way out of the situation. “
However, everyone hoped that attacks on Ukraine would not happen, Vyacheslav Bakhmin reminds: “Well, general mobilization is possible only after the declaration of war. These are interconnected things. At the same time, it is clear that mobilization is a completely different level of conflict, and there will be no sense in talking about a “special operation.” This means that, perhaps, attitudes within the country will change radically. After all, it is one thing to sit in front of the TV to support a “special”, as the media say, operation “point strikes” on the infrastructure of the “Nazis” dug in Ukraine, and quite another – to start a full-scale war with a neighboring state. No wonder the word “war” is banned in the country. It is because the public's reaction to the word is extremely negative. ” He is able to radically change the perception of what is happening to the majority of the population, “- summed up the co-chair of the Moscow Helsinki Group.
According to Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin, the declaration of war and mobilization will be a sign of great disaster. “Because then he de facto admits that it is impossible to fight with skills, and we have to return to the old Soviet model – to fight with numbers, the old way,” he told the Voice of America. – But this is an attempt with unsuitable funds. The modern war is so arranged that the size of the army has ceased to be a decisive factor. Everything is decided by modern weapons, the level of intelligence, communications, and so on. If the mobilization does take place, it will show that the Kremlin recognizes its inability to fit into the context of modern warfare. Ukraine does not have a conscript army. There the military is paid, in addition to serious money, and there is no shortage of soldiers. That is why Ukraine has a better chance of winning. “
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According to Western intelligence, the Russian army has lost at least ten thousand people since the invasion of Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine – more than 22 thousand. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation has not updated reports on the dead and wounded for more than a month.
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