The former US president is convinced that the Russian army will not be able to win the “maximum victory” in the war, and Ukraine will retain its independence.
The Russian war in Ukraine is a tragedy of historical proportions . And Vladimir Putin has become the embodiment of very concrete reactions to the idea of democracy, as well as to globalization, the clash of cultures, and the ability to contain anger. He embodies images associated with ethnonationalist mythology. And the war in Ukraine is the result of a toxic mixture of such thinking and autocratic rule, in which there is no responsibility and no checks.
This was stated in an interview with The Atlantic by the 44th President of the United States Barack Obama. He noted that Europe's reaction to Russia's invasion now inspired him. Because in 2014, when Russian troops occupied Crimea and began attacking Donbas, “I had to shout and force them to respond as Western democracies should.” Obama also stressed that Putin has always been cruel and ready to destroy anyone he considers a threat to himself. At the same time, the former US president recalled the brutal wars in Chechnya. He believes that there is no reason to expect that Putin will suddenly start behaving rationally. Obama also does not believe that protests against the regime or oligarchic resistance could break out in Russia.
However, according to Obama, many things in Ukraine are not going according to the plan of the Russian autocrat./p>
“This is both a high level of resistance and the reaction of Volodymyr Zelensky to the situation. What has changed since 2014, in my opinion, is that the sense of national identity has continued to grow. And, ironically, the annexation of Crimea and parts of the territory in the east helped Ukrainians clearly understand who they are and what they stand for. I also think Putin did not expect the nature of the war to change. Now everyone sees what is happening in real time. I will not say that all this will lead us to a happy decision, but it will potentially prevent Putin's maximalist victory. And in the long run, it will allow an independent Ukraine to exist, “Obama said.
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He refused to answer the question whether he considers Ukraine's victory in the war possible. According to Obama, it would be wrong to make such predictions or say what Ukrainians should do and what not, and what compromises can be agreed upon or not. But looking back on 2013-2014, would Obama change anything in his reaction to the occupation of Crimea and parts of Donbas?
“Not really, because the circumstances were different. The population in Crimea, in particular, and its attitude to Russia was different. That is why a full-scale invasion did not happen then. The East was a more difficult issue. And we gave a rather tough answer, which, as I said, required serious work with Europeans. And Ukraine itself was different. It is important to remember that there was, in fact, an autocrat who was in favor of Putin before. And we had to intervene to prevent the massacre on the Maidan. The Verkhovna Rada already had elements related to the old regime, “Obama said.
He also added that his administration tried not to allow the Kremlin to justify even more invasion of Ukraine.
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“And many appeals then concerned the armament of Ukraine, which could provide such an excuse. In addition, there was the problem of preparation, “Obama explained his position. >”It simply came to our notice then. But I think I underestimated the vulnerability of democracies, including ours, to misinformation, “he said.
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