The Russian army is unable to convert tactical achievements into operational successes.
Russian offensive on Bakhmut and Avdiivka brakedand their strength is probably already completely exhausted. In the future, slight slow advances are possible, but no more – the enemy will not be able to capture any cities and significant territories. This is the conclusion reached by the experts of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), according to their report for August 21.
“The momentum of Russian troops from the territorial gains around Bakhmut and Avdiyivka at the end of July has probably run out, and Russian attacks in the east of Ukraine will probably reach a climax, although very small Russian advances will probably continue,” the experts of the Institute believe.
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They noticed that the Russians were passing off the capture of Novoluhansky, Vuglegirsk thermal power plants and Ukrainian fortifications around the ventilation shaft of the Butivka mine at the end of July as significant gains. However, they were silent that it was the Armed Forces themselves who retreated from these positions in a coordinated manner, and the Russian troops did not even use them for the offensives on Bakhmut and Avdiivka and tried to attack the cities from other positions, but now these attacks are stopped.
“The failure of Russian forces to capitalize on previous gains around Bakhmut and Avdiivka is an example of a more fundamental Russian military problem – a demonstrated inability to turn tactical gains into operational successes. Russian troops have consistently failed to take advantage of tactical breakthroughs to maneuver into the Ukrainian rear or to unhinge significant parts of Ukrainian defense lines. Thus, they constantly give the Ukrainians time to tactically disengage and restore defensible positions, against which the Russians must then launch new deliberate attacks,” the ISW report says.
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This, according to the Institute's analysts, is the reason for such an “extremely slow” pace of Russian advance in the east and indicates that the Russians will not be able to capture much more territory in the coming months, unless the situation develops in an unpredictable way. Everything points to the fact that the Russians are not able to allocate enough resources for any offensive operation and significant territorial advance.
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Recall, according to a British expert, Russia lacks people and equipment , but the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces in the south should not be expected yet. The Armed Forces successfully use Western weapons, hitting the enemy's rear, but do not have enough human resources to launch a full-fledged counteroffensive in the south. The further course of events at the front will depend on the stability of the US and partners' aid to Ukraine.
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