“It will be a return to the Soviet Union in the 1980s, to a gloomy and miserable empire.”
Russia is committing economic suicide, its economy is facing “degradation to the level of a developing country”, and therefore German business is advised to leave Russia. These are some of the key theses of the growing number of publications in the German media, quoted by DW.
“Well-known economists warn German business circles about the futility of the Russian market > after the Russian attack on Ukraine and the imposition of numerous Western sanctions, “the article reads.
close business with Russia.
Yes, in Germany, it is believed that Russia will not become North Korea, but will only be a supplier of raw materials to Asia. At the same time, turning Russia into an “energy supplier for Asia” takes time, probably years. And it may take a decade to build pipelines to China.
“Something more is unlikely to come out. already exists “, – the publication quotes the opinion of one of the experts.
According to Germany, no one will die of starvation in Russia, 80 percent of purchasing power will remain. But “many jobs will be destroyed” and this will hit everyone, including the middle class, who are still “willing to spend their holidays in European countries” .
Experts are surprised by the statements made in Russia about “growth through technological regression”. According to them, “growth through regression” is a very peculiar message, because GDP growth is provided by technological progress.
Russian companies are advised to “not even hope that they will be able to be competitive” in the global competition. one of the opinions.
Therefore, Germany concludes, there is a “grand downward movement of Russia” and “this country has no innovation potential.”
“This whole war is economic suicide” , – says in an interview with the popular German business conservative newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung German specialist in military economics Marcus Koip, associate professor at the Military Academy at the Swiss Higher Technical School in Zurich.
we are witnessing the degradation of the developed economy to the level of a developing country “.
The expert predicts Russia a long period of high inflation , which will hit the “normal population” and force Putin to subsidize basic foodstuffs. poor empire “.
In another interview with Die Welt, Marcus Koip described what was happening in Russia as follows: “In the long run, Putin is doing very, very much damage from an economic point of view. He may not realize it. indifferent “.
Germany directly addresses business circles in a guest commentary on the pages of Handelsblatt publicist Bernd Ziesemer, in the past – editor in chief of this economic newspaper, and before that, in 1990-1995, its correspondent in Moscow.
He quotes the Russian proverb “measure seven times, cut once” and cites seven reasons why the business of German concerns in Russia will not resume, as it has repeatedly done in the past happened after various crises. This time, the author believes, hopes that it will be possible to “overwinter” are unattainable: “The Russian economy will have a very long winter “.
- The first reason is that Putin is considered a “war criminal” in the West, so there will be no normal political contact with Russia, but a new Cold War, even more fierce than the previous one.
- Second , what is happening at the moment, the accident of oil and gas cooperation “will break the backbone of German-Russian relations.” For Germany, the question is no longer whether to get rid of energy dependence on Russia, but only in time.
- Third, German business should not expect the end of the war to lead to the lifting of Western sanctions, especially American ones.
- Fourth reason: new large-scale projects in Russia will be too risky for many years to come. Concerns like Claas or Knauf, which want to stay in Russia, need to adjust to the slow decline of their factories, – predicts Bernd Ziesemer.
- The fifth reason he sees great reputational risks around the world for those firms that try to “overwinter” in Russia.
- The author sees the sixth reason in the further deterioration of the already bad business climate in Russia, because of which, according to a former correspondent in Moscow, German companies will suffer the most.
“ Blinded by 20 years of propaganda and national incitement, most Russians see themselves as victims of war, unjustly punished by Western sanctions and especially victims of German betrayal. Few German managers who are still trying to stay in Russia talk about all sorts of verbal attacks “, – the article states. - The seventh reason is the rapid impoverishment of Russians. Metro and Globus will soon have little left of the high consumer demand, which was explained by the wide presence in the Russian market, the author warns.
Giving these seven arguments, Bernd Ziesemer from the pages of Handelsblatt strongly recommends that German companies” cut once “, in other words:” Write off business in Russia. “
