Truman and Kennan's America, which so strongly advocated for its allies, is part of the story.
The United States is pursuing a Cold War strategy that will no longer bring about the desired result: the fall of the Putin regime . This was stated by Scottish historian Neil Ferguson in his article for Bloomberg.
US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter once remarked that in the corridors of power, they do not speak the language of economics or politics, but the language of history. In a recent scholarly paper, Neil Ferguson backed up this thesis with examples of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and the 2008 stock market crash. World leaders always resort to historical parallels. George W. Bush compared 9/11 to Pearl Harbor, and the head of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, feared a repeat of the Great Depression at the dawn of the 2008 crisis.
What historical analogies come to mind now? The New York Times correspondent David Sanger, who has the most senior sources, writes that the Biden administration has not yet decided what lessons the “mediation” war with the Soviet Union in Afghanistan should be applied to Ukraine. Until Biden's people see the point in a full-scale covert operation to hand over weapons to the Ukrainians through the CIA, as they did in Afghanistan, unless Ukraine loses the traditional war. But the United States will continue to supply Ukraine with MANPADS, anti-tank weapons and drones to drag Russia into the quagmire of protracted conflict, without provoking a larger clash with the nuclear enemy and without cutting off the path to possible de-escalation.
At a recent closed-door event, a member of the US administration said there was only one ultimate goal: the collapse of the Putin regime. Until that happens, Russia will be ostracized by all world powers. For China, which thought that Russia would lose everything, this should be a lesson – and a signal to reconsider the basics of partnership with Russia. For Western democracy, everything that happens is a star hour and a chance for consolidation.
Read also: Bloomberg: There will be no peace agreement in Ukraine until each side sees itself as a winner
Ferguson is convinced that there is about the same consensus among Britain's elites: “Let this be a war that will exhaust Putin.” This is largely due to the reluctance of the United States to facilitate the negotiation process and the conclusion of a truce between Moscow and Kiev, as well as Biden's willingness to publicly call Putin a war criminal.
He, Neil Ferguson writes, would himself agree with Francis Fukuyama, who recently predicted Russia's imminent defeat in the war. The fact that many Western experts draw such conclusions is logical: Russia has suffered heavy combat losses in Ukraine. The pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda accidentally published data from the Russian Ministry of Defense that the number of dead soldiers was 9,861 and the number of wounded was 16,153. The news was quickly deleted. By comparison, Soviet casualties in Afghanistan over the past 10 years amounted to 15,000 killed and 35,000 wounded.
Apparently, the Russians have big problems with logistics: they leave a lot of equipment on the road simply because they have flattened the tires or the engine has failed. From this point of view, Ukraine is really winning the war – in addition, the author recalls, there are many examples of how the military conflict was the last impetus to the destruction of the authoritarian regime. So it was with Saddam, Gaddafi, so it was with the Argentine junta, which decided to invade the Falklands.
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It would be great if a broken blitzkrieg in Ukraine, which turned into a protracted conflict, combined with economic sanctions, would lead to the end of the Putin regime. How are you, China? Just try to attack Taiwan now – which to us [the West], let's be honest, is much more important than Ukraine – very useful semiconductors are collected at one of the local factories.
Such a strategy strikingly combines cynicism and optimism. Here it is, Realpolitik in its best traditions – let the massacre in Ukraine continue, but we will weaken Russia and send a bold hint to China, with which the United States is currently in the Cold War 2.0.
The Biden administration believes it is doing enough to help Ukraine, but not to come into direct confrontation with Putin. But these calculations may turn out to be false: if the war drags on, it will lead not only to the deaths of thousands of Ukrainians, but also to an outcome that Putin may present to the Russians as his victory. And then do not expect any palace coup.
In addition, the United States believes in vain that the threat of potential sanctions will convince China not to provide economic assistance to Russia.
Read also: We are ready to go to neutrality and nuclear-free status – Zelensky
As for military action, even given that the war was clearly not going according to plan, the success of the Ukrainian army is greatly exaggerated by the Western media. One of the main theaters of war – not around besieged Kiev, but in the south. It is possible that besieged Mariupol will fall in a few days, and then it will allow Russian troops to take the Donbass in the ring. The next big goals are Nikolaev, a city northwest of Kherson, and the historic port city of Odessa.
Russia is demonstrating its strength: on Friday, March 18, it launched Dagger hypersonic missiles across Ukraine. And Putin, unlike Saddam and Gaddafi, has nuclear weapons, although I don't think he will go any further as long as he has enough to assert his dominance in conventional warfare.
There is another alternative front that Putin can open if he needs to heat up the situation – cyberspace. This is the same Sherlock Holmes dog that has not barked yet. Attacks by Russian hackers on Internet infrastructure, such as submarine Internet cables, are possible.
Read also: “I am the president, so for now we will decide whether there will be certain forces here,” – Zelensky
So far, the author admits, he does not see the West realistically assessing the prospects of this war. It is obvious that Putin is trying to win the most favorable position for starting a political bargain. Ukrainians have already announced the concessions they are ready for: refusal to join NATO, possible status of a neutral country, limitation on the number of weapons. But their position on the future status of Crimea, as well as the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “republics” is still unclear. It is obvious that if the Ukrainians feel that they are starting to win, they will not give away an inch of their land.
Meanwhile, economic sanctions are doing their job – the collapse of the Russian economy can be compared to the shock after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. But until Europe announces an embargo on energy imports from Russia, it will continue to receive about $ 1.1 billion a day. And the ruble stopped falling and even strengthened against the euro.
While Zelensky wins the hearts of Western parliamentarians with references to Churchill and Martin Luther King, speeches on the Holocaust and the fall of the Berlin Wall, Putin is playing a completely different game. He finally lost interest in the present and began writing pseudo-historical essays such as “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians.” According to Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev, Putin is driven by resentment, resentment of the “treacherous” West: part of the declaration of independence of Crimea he borrowed word for word from the Declaration of Independence of Kosovo, and attacked in Kiev TV tower – another straightforward rhyme: the same TV tower was destroyed in Belgrade in 1999.
Read also: TIME: Ukrainians accuse not only Putin of war, but all Russians
Still, recent history, and even the history of the USSR, does not interest Putin as much as the history of imperial Russia. During a rally in Luzhniki in support of Crimean independence and a “special operation” very similar to the Nazi congress, he recalled the great Russian Admiral Ushakov – in which Ferguson sees an alarming hint for Odessa.
The United States is convincing China that it intends to continue to develop a partnership with them, that there will be no Cold War 2.0, only this time with China, and that the United States does not support Taiwan's independence. Xi Jinping, in turn, does not believe a single word they say.
The US presidential administration has many “hawks” in charge of China, but the author is not sure that a “containment” strategy will work with modern China. In addition, we have no evidence that China has not helped Russia financially.
“Cold War 2.0” is a strange mirror image of “Cold War 1.0”: then the main hegemon-antagonist was the USSR, and the secondary – China. Now – the opposite. Then proxy wars took place in Asia, and now – in Europe. But when North Korea invaded South Korea, the Truman administration formed a powerful international coalition in support of it – and now the West is helping Ukraine only with weapons. The reason is simple: in 1950, the Soviet Union did not have a nuclear bomb. But Russia has it.
Read also: Putin's former ally told how power will change in Russia and who will overthrow the current leader of the Russian Federation
Neil Ferguson does not think that giving Ukraine to Russia is a wise strategy. Ukraine is not Afghanistan, and the war there will not last 10 years – rather 10 weeks. While Russia is bombing Ukraine, the chances of the latter's independence are fading with each passing day.
Putin, like most Russian leaders, is likely to die of natural causes. And China, watching this, is becoming increasingly aware that it is far from dealing with Truman and Kennan's America, which has so strongly advocated for its allies. That America is already part of history.
See the special topic: The Russian occupiers have already damaged more than 730 educational institutions , 139 children have died. FT: Biden told an awkward truth about Putin, and that's a problem It's hard to imagine a situation in which Washington would agree to lift sanctions and go on a “reset” of relations with Moscow while Putin is in power. The occupiers destroyed the house of the leader of the group Druga Rika near Gostomel . The house burned down completely. Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity are beyond doubt – Zelensky Ahead – a new round of talks between Ukraine and Russia. Bloomberg: There will be no peace agreement in Ukraine until each side sees itself as a winner It is possible that Kiev's consent to neutrality will help to agree on peace, but so far Putin's demands are much greater.
