If Macron loses, it will be difficult for him to continue reforms in France.
Five years ago in the National Assembly of France a wave of political debutants rushed. A teacher from Strasbourg, a businessman from Lyon, a farmer from Brittany, a firefighter from western France, all of them and many others won seats in the centrist party of Emmanuel Macron , then called “La République en Marche”. Together with its allies, the party occupied 60% of the lower house of parliament, marking a mass purge that reduced the average age of deputies and filled the assembly with women, according to The Economist.
Today, however, Macron's party is facing a ballot riot that could deprive the re-elected president of his majority and put an end to any further reform plans. Voters will vote for the new parliament on June 12 and 19.
At the national level, polls show that Macron's centrist alliance, the Ensemble, is on a par with Jean-Luc Melanchon's new left-wing radical group, which includes the Socialists and Communists. and green. Under the two-stage voting system, the party that “first” entered parliament will have the largest representation, and Macron's alliance is likely to remain the largest.
It appears that the Union of Socialists and Greens “NUPES” will replace the center-right Republicans as the main opposition, gaining at least three times more seats than this party and the Marine Le Pen National Union. Melanchon is unlikely to get a majority. But opinion polls suggest Macron could lose his majority if he lacks 14 to 39 seats in parliament.
After absorbing the moderate left, 70-year-old Melanchon, who admires Venezuelan Hugo Chavez and wants France to leave NATO, has created a powerful left-wing movement that has achieved extraordinary unity. It is liked, in particular, by people who support environmental change, citizens and young people: it is supported by 44% of people aged 18 to 24. This time Melanchon exhibits the bravest newcomers, including a baker from the east of France and a maid from Paris. He also skilfully debated the role in which he sees himself as prime minister.
Sensing this threat, Macron last month appointed his new prime minister, Elizabeth Bourne, an engineer and civil servant who built her career working for socialist politicians. Her candidacy itself will receive few leftist votes, but it marks a shift after Macron's two previous prime ministers, each of whom was center-right. Bourne promised to introduce “food checks” for low-income people and other measures to protect the French from inflation. Macron borrowed Melanchon's basic idea of ”green planning” to support his policies. Macron also appointed Papa Ndiaye, a historian who has written extensively on race and discrimination, as his new education minister.
Much has been done, much remains to be done
Under the French constitution, Macron has broad powers, including the right to pass laws with minimal parliamentary scrutiny and to appoint a prime minister. But politically, he still needs a working majority to complete what he started in his first term. This includes reforming the pension system, which will raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 or 65. In other words, the question of whether Macron will be able to continue his activities as an economic reformer and modernizer of French social security is at stake in the parliamentary vote.
The answer will be a resounding “no” if Melanchon makes a surprise and gets a majority of votes. Macron has already hinted that he will refuse to appoint him prime minister. But it would be extremely difficult for him not to do so, as would Jacques Chirac, who appointed Socialist Lionel Jospin after losing his majority in 1997.
Melanchon promises, among other things, to reduce the retirement age to 60, repeal reforms that liberalize the labor market, restore the wealth tax and increase the net minimum wage by 15% to 1,500 euros ($ 1,600) per month. Two of his candidates in Paris invited Jeremy Corbyn, a former British radical Labor leader, to campaign with them.
However, it is likely that Macron will either retain a small majority, which will allow him to continue his policy, or lose it, which threatens problems. In that case, the president will have to either gather a majority of voters with non-aligned deputies or seek a formal coalition. However, having crushed the main parties with his centrist bloc, Macron finds himself alone against extremes, and he has few options; center-right Republicans have little interest in helping him.
The campaign did not arouse enthusiasm. “People think that the legislature is just voting for a decision to give the president a majority that is not very motivating,” said Mathieu Galar Ipsos, a sociologist. Indeed, while maintaining his campaign restraint, Macron may have hoped to make the vote a natural extension of the presidential election. However, this result has so far been a faster sense of drift. This allowed Melanchon to set the agenda and dominate informational events such as the police fiasco at the recent Champions League football final. such ACS?
“There will be a struggle for every place,” said one of Macron's deputies. The government is preparing. The ministers who will not be elected, including Elizabeth Bourne, who is running in Normandy, must leave.
Macron knows how to overcome extremes. Melanchon's manifesto has many reasons for condemnation, not least his promise to violate some parts of European Union law or to phase out French nuclear energy. During the presidential campaign, Macron very accurately exposed the contradictions in Le Pen's promises. Now he needs to do the same with Mr. Melanchon.
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