The war in Ukraine seems to be escalating into a conflict in which Washington will be more directly opposed to Moscow.
During the recent visit of the US Secretary of Defense to Ukraine Lloyd Austin declared that the American goal was to make Russia “weaken so much” that it would no longer have the strength to fight against the neighboring country. Thus, he acknowledged the transformation of the war in Ukraine into a conflict that Washington is more directly opposed to Moscow.
The New York Times writes, recalling that at the beginning of the Russian invasion, President Joe Biden insisted he did not want to turn this war in competition between the United States and Russia. The administration only wanted to help democracy defend itself against a more powerful neighbor.
“The direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is the Third World War, which we must not allow,” Biden said in early March after two weeks of bloodshed in Ukraine.
He promised that American soldiers would not take part in the war. Washington also refused to close the skies over Ukraine so that American and Russian forces would not engage in direct confrontation. However, Russian military atrocities have become more apparent, Ukraine's need for heavy weapons has increased, its lines have become more blurred, and its rhetoric is sharper. At the same time, in word and deed, the United States gradually tried to reduce the capabilities of the Russian army. They imposed sanctions that were openly aimed at preventing Moscow from producing and developing new weapons. Work has also been under way to reduce revenues from the sale of Russian oil and gas that feed Russia's military machine. Although there is still work to be done on this front.
Several White House officials explained to the New York Times that Austin's words about the US desire to weaken Russia so much that it could not go to war with Ukraine. According to them, they want to give President Volodymyr Zelensky “the strongest possible position” in the ceasefire talks in the coming months. But in the long run, Austin's description of America's strategic goal may further reinforce Putin's belief that he is in fact waging war against the West, which seeks to stifle Russian power and destabilize its government.
“Defining the American goal as weakening the Russian army, Austin and others in the Biden administration speak openly about the future they see. These will be years of long-running conflict with Moscow for power and influence, reminiscent of what President John F. Kennedy once called the “long twilight battle of the Cold War,” the article said.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also said that Putin had “already lost” in many battles for Ukraine. This reflects the decision of the Biden administration and its closest allies to speak more openly and optimistically about the possible Ukrainian victory over the next few months. US intelligence believes that Putin is now convinced that he is winning the war. So Western rhetoric is about trying to spread the idea in Russia that a Russian military offensive could be a disaster for Moscow. And Putin can't really continue this conflict. But this strategy hides certain risks.
“The risk is that a degraded Russian military force could quickly turn into a degraded Russia as a whole. And Putin will use it to strengthen Russian nationalism, “said James Arroyo, director of the Ditchley Foundation.
Another risk is that Putin may dare to use chemical weapons or a tactical nuclear arsenal for fear that his usual forces have been defeated. CIA Director William Barnes does not rule out such a scenario. However, he believes it is unlikely now. However, Washington believes that Putin, defeated in the war against Ukraine, could “demonstratively” detonate nuclear munitions over the Black Sea or in uninhabited territory to scare off the West.
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