The world needs a Kremlin with a new leader who can only emerge after the defeat of the Russian army in Ukraine.
It's hard to believe, but it's impossible to deny now, that the broad rules on which the stability and prosperity of the post-Cold War world were based would be seriously undermined by Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine. To a large extent, these rules were based on the West's ability to coexist with Putin, who played the role of a “bad guy” and tested the world order for strength, but never grossly violated its rules.
But by unjustifiably invading Ukraine, destroying cities, and massacring peaceful Ukrainians, the Russian autocrat ceased to be a “pagan” and became a “war criminal.” Russia's leader, which stretches through 11 time zones with its vast reserves of oil, gas, minerals and even nuclear warheads, must now become an international pariah. This means that the world we knew has changed a lot. And nothing will be the same as before, – writes the New York Times.
How can the world expect the UN to be effective if a country led by a war criminal holds a seat on the Security Council and can veto any resolution? How can the world effectively combat climate change without cooperating with the largest country on the planet? How can the United States cooperate with Russia in resolving the issue of Iran's nuclear program when Moscow is not trusted? How to isolate and weaken such a large country, knowing that its collapse can be no less dangerous than when it is strong? How to feed and provide energy to the world, when Russia is among the largest exporters of oil, wheat and mineral fertilizers? The answer to all these questions is one: no one knows. This means that we are entering a period of geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty, which has not existed since 1989, and perhaps since 1939. And the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. Because Putin is now a cornered animal. He not only made a terrible mistake by launching an invasion of Ukraine, but also provoked the opposite consequences. Therefore, he desperately wants to win at least some military victory at any cost, so that it hides his failure.
Putin has said he is starting a war against Ukraine to push NATO away from Russia. But his aggression only breathed life into the stagnant Western military alliance. The allies will now be consolidated and will invest in rearmament while Putin is in power, and perhaps for another generation after that. The Russian autocrat claimed that he started the war in order to overthrow the “Nazi” regime in Kyiv and return Ukraine “to the bosom of Mother Russia”, where it belongs, according to his ideas. Instead, his invasion has made Ukrainians and even those who once sympathized with Russians, fierce enemies of Russia for at least a generation. Ukraine is now fiercely fighting for its independence from Moscow and is seeking to join the EU.
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Putin thought that by seizing Ukraine he would force the West to respect Russia's military force. But so far the war has brought only humiliation. She showed that Russia, with an economy smaller than Texas, is just “refueling with a nuclear arsenal.” The Russian army has shown its cruelty and incompetence. She needed mercenaries from Chechnya and Syria to withstand the Ukrainian blow.
Having made all these mistakes and started the war solely on his own initiative, Putin is desperately looking for something he can present as a “victory.” He wants to take control of the entire Donbas, the southern Black Sea coast to Odessa, to connect the occupied territories in the east with the occupied Crimea. And he wants to do so until May 9, when Moscow will hold a parade on the occasion of Victory Day in World War II. After all, the Russian army on this day remembers the times of its greatest glory.
That is why Putin seems to be preparing a new two-pronged strategy. First, he regroups the exhausted his exhausted army, concentrating them on the goal of gaining and maintaining a smaller military target. Second, it intensifies systematic brutality by continuing to destroy Ukrainian cities with missiles and artillery, killing as many civilians as possible and causing as much economic damage as possible, as well as expelling as many people as possible from their homes. He hopes that the first will lead to the fall of the Armed Forces at least in the east, and the second – to the fall of NATO, whose member states will not withstand the influx of so many refugees. He hopes that under such humanitarian pressure, the West will put pressure on Kyiv, demanding that Putin give everything he wants to end the war. That is why Ukraine and NATO need an effective counter-strategy.
It should rest on three pillars. First, Ukraine must receive diplomatic support if it comes to negotiations with Putin. But it is also necessary to provide the Armed Forces with the best weapons and conduct the necessary training to expel the Russian army from Ukrainian territory. Secondly, it is necessary to say loudly every day at the slightest opportunity that the world is at war “with Putin” and not with the Russian people in general. That is, to say the opposite of what Russian propaganda is saying. And third, it is time to get rid of purchases of Russian oil, which remains Putin's main source of income. This plan should move the forces inside the country that will deprive Putin of power.
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The New York Times acknowledges that this is a very risky offer with a high end result. Putin's fall could lead someone worse to the presidency. It can also cause long-term chaos and the disintegration of Russia. But good results are possible. Power may be in the hands of someone with minimal decency and ambition to rebuild Russian dignity, as well as a sphere of influence based on the new generation of Tchaikovsky, Rachmaninoff, Sakharov, Dostoevsky, and Sergei Brin, rather than oligarchs with yachts, hackers, and assassins. In this case, the world will be a better place. There will be many opportunities for healthy cooperation.
Only the Russian people have the right and the strength to change their leader. But it will still not be easy to do, because former KGB officer Putin has surrounded himself with other loyal intelligence officers. And it is almost impossible to overthrow him. However, there is one potentially successful scenario.
The Russian army is a source of pride in the Russian structure. And if it continues to suffer catastrophic defeats in Ukraine, there will be a situation in which either Putin wants to eliminate his military command, making generals scapegoats for failure, or the army, knowing about the impending “purge”, will try to get rid of Putin first. Russia's armed forces have never been on good terms with the intelligence services whose leaders surround Putin. the people must elect a new leader. It is also important that the United States become a model of democracy and stability that others want to follow. Ukrainians are making the greatest sacrifices for every inch of their freedom. So asking Americans to make the least sacrifices to preserve their democratic heritage is not much.
See the special topic: The head of the Ministry of Finance told how many reports the government has received about damaged property You can leave a claim about a destroyed home through the “Action” application. Borrel called on the European Union to urgently provide Ukraine with all the necessary weapons – Bloomberg This is the next few days, not weeks. More and more Ukrainians are returning from abroad – SBGS According to the SBGS spokesman, most Ukrainians are returning to Ukraine on the border with Poland. Ukraine will join the EU in the coming years – Zhovkva The Deputy Chairman of the OP also hopes that Hungary will not block the country's membership in the European Union. The EU has started working on the sixth package of sanctions against Russia with the “oil option” – Lithuanian Foreign Minister According to Gabrielius Landsbergis, work has begun to reach a consensus.
