None of those in power in Putin's regime will be able to gain the support they need to become president of Russia.
Blood cancer? Parkinson's disease? Prolonged COVID-19? Since the beginning of the Russian war against Ukraine, various rumors have been circulating about Vladimir Putin's health . In addition to all the possible diseases, there are those who allow the overthrow of his regime due to the coup in the Kremlin.
But all these discussions inevitably lead to the same question: what will really happen if Putin dies tomorrow? Who in Russia will take power? And how will this affect the war in Ukraine, relations with the West and the political situation in the world in general?
Focus magazine writes that on paper the situation is quite clear. If Putin dies, resigns or is removed from power under Russia's constitution, the prime minister must temporarily lead the country. The election of a new president is scheduled for three months. Few in the West even know the name of Russia's prime minister. His name is Mikhail Mishustin. He is 56 years old, married, has three sons and co-founded the Amateur Night Hockey League with Putin. Prior to his appointment as Prime Minister in January 2020, Mishustin headed Russia's tax service for 10 years. However, Mishustin has no chance of retaining power after Putin's death.
“He is a capable technocrat, but without political power at home,” said Gerhard Mangott, a political scientist and professor of international relations at the University of Innsbruck. p>
Marina Henke, a professor of international relations at the Gerty School in Berlin, also does not believe that Mishustin can replace the Russian autocrat in the Kremlin. The scenario in which Putin's formal successor will indeed take his place is very unlikely.
“There is no clearly defined successor, no crown prince. The whole system is tied solely to Putin himself, “Henke explained.
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Experts believe that if someone from Putin's entourage wants to take power, the Kremlin will start a big battle.
“No matter who comes to power after Putin, he is unlikely to have enough support from the various security services, the military and the oligarchs,” Henke said.
Each potential bidder will be ambiguous. And he will have to fight for a seat in the Kremlin. If someone around Putin announces himself as the new president, there will be someone who says, “You can't be the one to get power.” And then, in a sense, the “palace massacre” will begin. Focus lists the names of those who, according to the publication, could try to replace Putin.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sabyanin could be one such potential contender. When Putin temporarily stepped down as prime minister in 2008, Sobyanin was deputy prime minister. However, according to Mangott, the mayor of Moscow does not have much support outside the Russian capital. After all, in other regions, voters despise Muscovites “spoiled by wealth.” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu may also try to become Russia's president after Putin. The occupation of Crimea and the invasion of Syria have made him popular.
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However, the failure of Russia's attempt to quickly conquer Ukraine undermined Shoigu's position. And this will not allow him to take the presidency. The name of former GRU chief Alexei Dumin is also mentioned from time to time in discussions about Putin's potential successors. After all, he was one of the leaders of the operation to occupy Crimea in 2014. Putin even awarded him the title of “Hero of Russia.” However, in 2016, Dumin switched to regional policy. Therefore, experts doubt that he will try to attack the Kremlin.
Political scientist Gerhard Mangott believes that any potential successor to Putin is unlikely to understand the legacy of his cruel predecessor and normalize relations with the West.
< "Putin's resignation will eliminate the aggressive, authoritarian and paranoid president. But we cannot expect that someone more acceptable will come to power, "the expert explained.
