What's more, there is even a “forecast of happiness” – this is the death of Putin, which will have inevitable consequences for the Russian troops on the battlefield.
Oleg Zhdanov, military expert and reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine one of the most difficult questions is when the war against Ukraine will end. He said that there are two options – the most pessimistic, which is that hostilities will end in the summer of next year, and the more optimistic – at the beginning of spring.
First, he explained why the worst option is the summer itself: “Because the weapons are coming very slowly. Today we are conducting some counteroffensives, but we cannot launch a large counteroffensive because there is not enough weapons. What we are being supplied with is not the volumes , which are needed to create a new army that would conduct a counteroffensive operation and knock out the enemy to the borders of 1991.”
As an argument, he also mentioned the forecast of the US Institute for the Study of War, which is that the liberation of Kherson Oblast may take not weeks, but months.
The expert noted that it would be great if the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a large-scale counteroffensive before winter. If Lend-Lease will start operating from October 1, then from November the General Staff will already create brigades for the counteroffensive.
Another scenario is more optimistic. It will be if Ukraine receives weapons faster, and the defense of the Russian Federation turns out to be weaker than it seems now. Then everything can be over by the spring of 2023.
“Well, and the forecast of happiness – I called it that, but of course I consider it the most unrealistic today. The forecast of happiness is if something happens to Putin and there is a change of political regime in the Russian Federation. Then there is a chance that the war will end in a matter of days. Army will be demoralized, the new leadership may order the withdrawal of troops. More precisely, a ceasefire, but we will drive them to the borders. Therefore, I say that this is a forecast of happiness,” Zhdanov said.
Read also: The analyst made forecast regarding the future strategy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Recall that President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said thatThe offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine continues not only in the Kherson direction. However, he noted that “he cannot discuss the details of any military operations.”
Meanwhile, the OP urges Ukrainians living in temporarily occupied territories to prepare for de-occupation. The minimum task is to prepare shelter, drinking water and devices for charging phones.
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In the meantime, the WSJ notes that the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces in the south is progressing slowly, but is going according to plan. According to experts, the defenders skillfully use the available resources, weakening the enemy in the only possible way so far.
See special topic: Mobilization in Ukraine: one category of servicemen may be released from service The changes may affect those already in the ranks of the Armed Forces. Zelensky discussed increasing pressure on Russia with Pelosi The president also thanked the US for supporting Ukraine. Ukrainian military advanced in the Luhansk region – Haidai The Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled enemy attacks in the region. Three people were pulled out from under the rubble of a house in Kharkiv The rescue operation at the site of the impact continues. RF troops shelled two communities with mortars and artillery in the Sumy region A total of 36 “arrivals” were recorded.
