Countries in Europe and the Far East can no longer rely on the American “nuclear umbrella”.
When Russia decided to invade Ukraine, it became a vivid case when a nuclear power unleashed a war against a nuclear-free smaller neighbor. At the same time, Moscow constantly resorted to nuclear threats throughout the conflict.
All these facts reveal an important problem of the logic of nuclear deterrence in the 21st century, – Dartmouth University management professor Daryl Press said during a discussion at the Atlantic Council.
He noted that in the world – from Europe to East Asia, – many US allies have given up building their own nuclear arsenals in exchange for the protection of the American “nuclear umbrella”. And this approach worked well in the 20th century, preventing the start of a nuclear war and curbing the spread of arsenals. However, according to the expert, this approach cannot continue for two reasons.
“First, America is less interested in the outcome of conflicts than local players. Objectively, Russia is more interested in the outcome of the war with Ukraine than the United States. North Korea is more interested in how the conflict on the Korean Peninsula ends than America. And this should force the allies to reconsider their attitude to the current logic of nuclear deterrence,” the Press noted.
“Secondly, North Korea is developing nuclear capabilities that would allow it to strike the United States. Therefore, smart analysts in South Korea or Japan should ask themselves the question, will Washington risk its own security to protect them? If the answer is no, then they have every reason to wonder whether they should start building up their own similar capabilities,” he added.
Also read: Russia's nuclear threats worked, and China noticed – expert
The press also noted that American nuclear forces are based in South Korea, which should deter North Korean aggression. And they were enough when the North was just threatening to build a nuclear arsenal. However, now it exists. And if we imagine a hypothetical nuclear attack by Pyongyang against Seoul, would the US come to the rescue, knowing that North Korea is capable of launching a nuclear strike on American soil? This question remains unanswered. Despite the presence of American nuclear forces in South Korea, the decision to respond to Pyongyang's aggression will still be made in Washington. So, according to the Press, South Korea has every reason to think about its own deterrents.
