Under the optimistic scenario, fuel at Ukrainian gas stations will start appearing by the end of May, and the deficit will finally disappear within two months. But there are a few “buts”.
Under the current scheme of fuel supplies to Ukraine, the market will recover by the end of May, it will take up to two months to completely overcome the deficit, but a new “surprise” may soon arise, which will partially return the problem. Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group LLC, told ZN.UA about the situation on the fuel market in Ukraine.
Yes, according to the expert, to completely overcome the fuel shortage will take at least two months. And the revival of supply can be expected in late May.
“Currently, it is difficult to predict exactly how long it will take to resolve all logistics and resource issues, but a revival of supply can be expected in late May. In general, the construction of new transport corridors can take up to two months,” he said.
Serhiy Kuyun stressed that sufficient volumes of fuel in ports and European refineries have been contracted for today .
“Traders have contracted sufficient volumes of fuel in ports and European refineries. But shipments are very slow due to lack of tanks, locomotives, and most importantly – lack of coordination between participants in this movement. There are questions about the interaction of railways,” Kuyun said. According to him, during this time, issues of European logistics, which are currently the main barrier on the way to fuel in Ukraine , should be resolved.
In his opinion, the visit of the Ukrainian delegation to Warsaw on May 9, consisting of traders, officials and managers of state-owned companies headed by Deputy Prime Minister Svyridenko, was very useful in this regard. “Mirror” delegations were also from Europeans – Poland, Germany, Romania.
“According to the participants of the meetings, some problems were inconsistencies even within some European structures, when the head office was not aware of the problems of its units on the ground. “Detailed flight analysis” allowed us to diagnose problems on the spot and outline the prospects for solving them. Some projects will require some time and investment, “Kuyun said.
According to him, there is also government immersion in fuel market problems and a better understanding of the objectivity of current challenges.
At the same time, he pointed out the circumstances that could slow down or even partially return the problem of fuel shortage soon.
“ The emergence of new difficulties is not ruled out , as all elements of complex logistics chains, including the infrastructure of border transshipment stations from a narrow European track to a wide Ukrainian one, must be tested by increased supply,” he said. expert.
He also reminded that Europe is on the verge of deciding on an embargo on Russian oil.
The problem is the scarcity of the European market, as well as the prospect of an embargo on Russian oil and petroleum products. strong> “, – said Kuyun.
Recall, the introduction of a phased embargo on Russian oil is part of the sixth package of sanctions against Russia . Despite opposition from a number of Eastern European countries, an agreement could be reached as early as next week, or if not, by the end of May. Probably.
Most EU countries must fully implement Russian oil embargo by the end of 2022, Hungary by the end of 2024, Slovakia and the Czech Republic by the middle of 2024.
