The Belarusian military, most likely, retains the minimum potential for conducting complex operations.
Russia is unlikely to be able to form combat-ready divisions in Belarus. This opinion was expressed by analysts of the British Ministry of Defense.
On October 14, 2022, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko announced that 70,000 Belarusian servicemen and up to 15,000 Russians would be involved in the new joint grouping of the forces of the Russian Federation and Belarus.
On October 15, 2022, the Belarusian authorities released a video allegedly showing the arrival of Russian troops in Belarus. However, it is currently unlikely that Russia has actually deployed a significant number of additional forces in Belarus, according to British intelligence.
Russia is unlikely to be able to form combat units of the declared number: its forces are deployed in Ukraine. The Belarusian military, most likely, retains the minimum potential for conducting complex operations, analysts said.
“This statement is probably an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarusian solidarity and convince Ukraine to switch its forces to guarding the northern border,” – the British Ministry of Defense notes.
Latest Defense Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 21 October 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/X8IXxY7DrA
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/vGVhbKLVkB
— Ministry of Defense 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) October 21, 2022
Read also: Ukrainians are being shackled units, fearing a counteroffensive: ISW do not believe in a new attack from Belarus
Earlier it was reported that the first echelons of Russian soldiers from the regional group of troops had arrived in Belarus.
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Does this mean that Russia will again invade Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, and the Belarusian military will take a direct part in the war? What to expect from Lukashenka – read in Volodymyr Kravchenko's article “Lukashenka's Games: Will the army of Belarus invade Ukraine“.
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