It is possible that Kiev's consent to neutrality will help negotiate peace, but so far Putin's demands are much greater.
All wars end in political agreements. But the war in Ukraine dragged on. And some analysts have begun to say that Ukraine's consent to political neutrality could be the basis of a peace pact with Russia.
At the same time, the devil of any arrangement lies in the details, writes Gal Brands , a professor at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies at Bloomberg. Neutrality, acceptable to Ukraine, is still unthinkable for Vladimir Putin . And neutrality on the criteria that the Kremlin satisfies is a death sentence for Ukrainian independence. Neutrality has long been seen as a tempting way to resolve disputes over small, strategically located countries. For example, this status of young Belgium was guaranteed by the Multilateral Treaty of London in 1839. In the end, Germany violated it in 1914.
After World War II, Finland agreed to restrictions in foreign policy to avoid full-scale involvement in the Soviet bloc. In the 1950s, Austria became neutral due to an agreement reached in the midst of the Cold War. Both Austria and Finland eventually became more inclined to the West. But none of them joined the blocs that divided Europe in two.
Theoretically , neutrality can make sense in the case of Ukraine . Putin is baseless in claiming that NATO's eastward expansion has been the main reason for his conflict with the government in Kiev. In reality, Ukraine has never had a clear prospect of joining the alliance. And President Vladimir Zelensky has now acknowledged this . Perhaps there may be an agreement in which Putin stops the war in exchange for Ukraine's formal neutrality. Kyiv recognizes Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and Donbass. The author writes that the concession of the territory that Moscow controlled before the outbreak of full-scale war may be acceptable. Zelensky probably understands that he will not be able to get Crimea or Donbass in the near future. Diplomats can come up with clever wording that recognizes Russia's control over the territories without the need for formal recognition by Moscow's sovereignty.
The real problem is in conflicting versions of neutrality. When Putin talks about this, he means not only Ukraine's non-aligned status. He wants Ukraine to become so weak and unarmed that it is unable to defend itself. Russian negotiators have proposed limiting the Ukrainian army to 50,000 soldiers. And this is only a small faction of forces that Kiev has today. Such a concession would lead to the destruction rather than the preservation of an independent Ukraine. An unarmed, chronically vulnerable country will constantly fear that Putin, who was going to seize all of its territory in the current war, will simply try again when it is convenient for him. So if Zelensky agreed to such an agreement, Ukraine's position would have to be so bad that Putin would not even need to negotiate.
How to make Ukraine's neutrality viable ? There are two scenarios, each of which Putin simply hates. The first is that Ukraine can defend its own neutrality if it is armed to the teeth so that it can shatter the army of any aggressor, like the Russian one now. This will require the construction of a more advanced military-industrial complex of Ukraine or the purchase of a large number of advanced weapons: anti-tank missiles, ammunition, air defense systems, etc. The West would also need to provide more funding and more training.
Or there is a second scenario: Ukrainian neutrality can be protected by guarantees provided by large states. Any promises from Putin are empty. Therefore, the guarantors of Ukraine in neutral status should be the United States, Britain and other Western countries. If you think this is akin to NATO membership, then so be it. None of the scenarios will suit Putin. Because it is impossible to control Ukraine, which is able to defend its neutrality or ask Western forces to do so. The situation is complicated by another problem: both sides believe that time is on their side.
Read also: Focus: Putin's first two plans for the war in Ukraine failed, the third he is forced to change
Wars end when enemies converge in their expectations of the future. For example, when country A and country B realize that the conflict between them is hopelessly deadlocked. However, despite the fact that the Russian offensive in Ukraine has largely stopped, there is still no such understanding. Putin seems to think he can break Ukraine's will with brutal siege tactics and threats to use chemical or radiological weapons. He uses artillery and air strikes in an attempt to destroy Ukraine's economy and defense-industrial capabilities. He still has powerful non-kinetic tools, such as cyberattacks, that can be used against the West, hoping to reduce economic chaos and reduce enthusiasm for sanctions.
Ukraine's calculations are different. Its authorities are convinced that the forces of the Russian invaders are too stretched and vulnerable. The Ukrainian army is conducting powerful counter-campaigns in the vicinity of Kiev. Zelensky hopes that the sanctions will ruin the Russian economy and defense industry. Ukrainian forces will be able to continue the fight as long as weapons and money come from the West. Zelensky and Putin still believe that they may eventually get better negotiating positions than they have now. And it doesn't matter if there is talk of neutrality or not. Of course, they can't both be right. But until the convictions of one of them are dispelled, the war will continue. This means that the situation in Ukraine will become even worse.
Watch the special topic: Russian bombs closer to the West – Stefanchuk Speaker of Parliament called on NATO to give Ukraine weapons that could change the course of the war The probability of Belarus' participation in the war is quite high – General Staff On the border with Ukraine, the enemy continues to gather troops and bring “Iskanders”. Putin will try to use nuclear weapons if he does not take Kiev – Grozev Fortunately , the order must pass a whole chain of people, until the launch of the missile. The Germans' financial situation will deteriorate – Steinmeier Tough Western sanctions against Russia will inevitably result in instability and certain losses for Germany. South Korea will leave Russia and Belarus without electronics New restrictions will hit the defense-industrial complex of the aggressor country.
