No matter how things unfold on the battlefield, European defense policy will now change for a long time.
Two days after Vladimir Putin sent his army to Ukraine, Russia's state news agency RIA Novosti published an article about the inevitable victory . It spoke of a “new era” in which the West would no longer dominate, ties between the United States and Europe would be severed, and Russia would finally occupy a “legitimate space and place” in the world.
But the war continues. And to proclaim the unification of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus into a single “Russian world” is at least too early, writes Bloomberg. RIA Novosti quickly deleted the article. But the author was right in one thing: Putin's decision to start a war against Ukraine is changing the world order. However, not at all as he had planned.
From Berlin to London and Tallinn, there is an ongoing assessment of everything that needs to be done to protect Europe. Large-scale war is no longer considered unthinkable. Countries are rethinking what they can spend, what would be better to buy and how they will have to fight . Instead of severing ties with the United States, NATO's European allies, on the other hand, have become more consolidated with Washington. Instead of cutting back to the 1997 framework, as Putin demanded, the alliance is sending more forces to its fronts. The Alliance has sent an additional 3,000 troops to its eastern borders, as well as helicopters, tanks and fighters, to contain the Kremlin's potential decision to expand the battlefield.
“It doesn't matter how this war ends, no matter how cynical it may sound now, but historians will say that Putin's attack on Ukraine gave Europe time to resume, prepare to fight Russia and then China. Ukraine is paying a high price to buy us time, ”said General Richard Barrons , the former head of the Allied Command.
The big question for Europe is: how does it use this time? Germany's decision to spend an additional 100 billion euros on defense has become the most obvious strengthening of defense, which will change the balance of power both in Europe itself and in Russia. Other countries are also raising their defense budgets, particularly the three Baltic states, which have long warned of Putin's sinister intentions . They are also asking NATO for permanent long-range air defense bases and systems, although it is unclear whether they will receive all this.
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All this does not portend a return to stability in Europe. It is rather an acknowledgment of her loss. Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a “post-imperialist, post-colonial takeover,” said Fiona Hill , former director of Europe and Russia at the US National Security Council.
“If we allow this to happen, we will set a precedent for the future,” she warned.
All these extra billions can be spent efficiently or vice versa. The initial shock of the war and the delight of the incredibly successful resistance of the Ukrainian army began to recede. The same can happen with NATO's unity and determination. Putin has not achieved his goals. However, there are indications that he may choose to isolate Russia and perpetuate instability in Ukraine and Europe instead of admitting his mistake. Defeat can jeopardize his survival.
“This is a race in which the Russians forced us to flee. But at the same time, it is a competition in which neither side can win or lose. Many more cards have not been played on NATO's side so that the consequences can be understood, “said David Shlapak , a senior RAND researcher.
He was responsible for organizing an analysis of Russia's potential attack on the Baltic states, which was conducted after the occupation of Crimea in 2014. The results were in the headlines of all world media. After all, then analysts came to the conclusion that the Russian army can come to the capitals of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in 60 hours. Today, after Russia's failure in Ukraine, such predictions are naturally skeptical. But according to Shlapak, it is still too early to talk about how recent events will change the equations in RAND forecasts. At the same time, the Russian army was defeated. And its supply of high-precision missiles is exhausted . According to Michael Mazarr , a former special aide to the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Russia's war against NATO is now less likely than it was before February 24.
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Of course, in 3-5 years, Putin's generals will learn the lessons, regroup and rearm. But they will be severely hampered by sanctions that will limit Moscow's access to technology and finance. NATO will also be rearmed. And, according to Mazarra, this is the most alarming change in Europe's security system. Stability between the great powers depends on their ability to reach agreements to maintain the status quo. This was achieved in the 1960s in relations with the USSR, but not with Putin's Russia.
“After the war in Ukraine, it is impossible to treat the Kremlin regime as a geopolitical partner. We are now locked in an endless confrontation with an increasingly humiliated, hypernationalist and dangerous adversary who is declining, ”Mazarr explained.
See the special topic: The Russian military is beginning to side with Ukraine – The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Company of Russian servicemen has moved to the side of Ukraine. Japan has expanded sanctions against Russia, including 25 people and 81 companies. Bankers Igor Shuvalov and Nikolai Shamalov have been restricted. In Berdyansk, the landing ship “Saratov” was destroyed, not “Orsk” – the General Staff of the APU Previously published information about the destruction of the landing ship “Orsk” was not confirmed. Ukrainian military destroys strategic objects of the occupiers in our cities – British intelligence This tactic demoralizes the enemy and allows to distract from attempts to attack. Ukraine will not have to make territorial concessions – Biden Our country must decide such issues, but the US president does not believe in such compromises.
