The Israeli side has a number of red lines that it will not cross, but it still has a lot to offer.
Two months after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin convened an extraordinary conclave of allies and partners at a military base in the German city of Ramstein . A military coalition was formed there, whose stated goal is to protect Ukraine from further Russian aggression.
The participants were mostly NATO members. But they were also joined by about a dozen other states loyal to the United States, including Israel, which had hoped to remain neutral since the start of the war. But the presence of his representatives at the Ramstein meeting shows that Israel is “completely in business,” Zeev Shafes, a former aide to Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and founder of Jerusalem Report Magazine, told Bloomberg.
The only question is, in what “case”? Israel accepted the invitation to the meeting, hoping that it would be asked to play a small role in Ukraine's armaments, which would allow Kyiv to withstand and repel the attack of the invaders. But after the conference, Austin told reporters that the goal of Rammstein's alliance was to weaken Russia so that it could no longer use military force against its neighbors. In other words, deprive her of superpower status. The Ramstani group will meet once a month, which means that the United States is preparing for a long war.
In response, Russia has made it clear that it will not agree to the complete defeat that the United States and its partners expect. Vladimir Putin has even hinted that he may even use nuclear weapons if necessary to prevent Russia's defeat. The Israeli government did not say before the meeting in Germany that it intended to join the alliance in a war that could theoretically become nuclear. He did not react to the Russian threat. However, a trip to Ramstein was a crucial decision. And it will not be possible to “jump off”.
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Military alliances are a novelty for Israel. In 1991, during the Gulf War, the country wanted to join a US-led coalition. However, the Arab allies refused her. Israel is also not a member of NATO. This means that he has no collective defense obligations. Moreover, Israel does not even have a formal defense agreement with the United States, and it is accustomed to fighting its own wars in its own region. It is unlikely that Israel wanted to “sign up” to take part in the long-running conflict against Russia in Ukraine or in the wider war in Europe.
Most of the countries whose representatives were in Ramstein do not have Russian troops near their borders. And they are near the borders of Israel. In Syria. In recent years, Israel and Russia have coordinated military efforts that have allowed Israeli troops to wage a covert war against Iran and its puppets. But if relations deteriorate, Moscow is unlikely to hold back Iran in the future by preventing it from arming Hezbollah or sending its Iranian troops closer to Israel's borders. It is already clear that Russian-Israeli relations are falling apart. On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Adolf Hitler was of “Jewish descent.” And this caused outrage in Israel.
As long as the war in Ukraine continues, the Israeli side will do whatever Washington asks. But it has its red lines that no one will cross. This means that no Israeli government will send combat units to Ukraine for war. Also, Israel will not supply the Armed Forces with heavy weapons. In fact, NATO countries have enough weapons to help the Ukrainian military, not to mention that the United States is increasing its production. Israel will also not share its military secrets with coalition members.
What then can the country offer? Israel is one of the five countries with the greatest cyber capabilities in the world. It also has advanced offensive and defensive military capabilities. Israeli intelligence is extremely powerful and proven in battles. The country has some military technologies that can be useful. In addition, Israel has many Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking soldiers capable of training the Ukrainian military. Israel has also already demonstrated in western Ukraine that it is capable of setting up first-class field hospitals.
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What will Israel ask for this? He wants a long-term and more credible agreement on Iran's nuclear program. He also wants the United States to list Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards as terrorist organizations, as well as Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad in Palestine. Israel also needs the United States to supply it with some ammunition that will help destroy Iran's nuclear targets.
In addition, Israel wants to expand the Abrahamic Agreement by joining new countries. This means that Saudi Arabia must be persuaded to support the containment of Iran. The Israeli government is also opposed to the opening of a US consulate in East Jerusalem. After all, Palestinian leaders in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank support Russia. But Israel did not join the US-led alliance to achieve all of the above goals. Nor was his decision motivated by moral rejection of Russia's way of waging war or fraternal concerns about Europe's future.
Israel's main goal is to maintain good relations with the United States. That is why he risks strategic independence and tactical superiority over Iran. Such major policy changes need to be debated. At least, they would, of course, lead to the only conclusion: an alliance with the United States in this war is the best choice for Israel.
