Some Russian elites fear the invasion was a catastrophic mistake, but insiders say Putin will not give in and is not threatened with losing power.
Almost 8 weeks have passed since Vladimir Putin has ordered an invasion of Ukraine. The Russian army suffered heavy losses, and Russia found itself in unprecedented international isolation. Now the Kremlin has a small but growing group of people who are already doubting the right decision to start this war.
This was reported by Bloomberg, adding that dissatisfied representatives of the ruling elite hold senior positions in the Russian government or in the management of state-owned companies. They are convinced that the invasion was a catastrophic mistake that would push Russia back for many years. This was reported to the publication by 10 sources who are directly aware of the situation in the Kremlin. All interlocutors of the publication agreed to speak on condition of anonymity for fear of personal safety.
According to them, so far there is no chance that Putin will change his course. And in Russia no one is going to challenge him. Increasingly reducing the circle of the most reliable and tough advisers, Putin rejected all attempts by Russian officials to warn him of the high political and economic cost of war. Some Russian officials have told Bloomberg that they share fears that US intelligence may be using Putin's decision to use nuclear weapons if his “historic mission” fails. Support for the war against Ukraine remains high among most of Russia's elite. Many insiders in public statements and private conversations echo the Kremlin's claim that conflict with the West is inevitable. And that the economy is adapting to the sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies. Public support for the war also remains strong. Because of this, despite all the shocks due to sanctions, Russia has a certain surreal stability.
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However, a growing number of Kremlin insiders are convinced that Putin's desire to continue the war will doom Russia to years of isolation and increase tensions to such an extent that it will destroy Russia's economy, security and global influence. Several oligarchs have made veiled statements questioning the Kremlin's strategy. But many influential players are too intimidated by repression to speak out about their discontent. Skeptics were surprised by the speed and scale of the reaction of the United States and its allies, which froze $ 640 billion in reserves of the Russian Central Bank. As well as the fact that foreign companies actually canceled investments for decades overnight and stopped all their operations. No one also expected Kyiv's military support to be so stable in the face of the Russian offensive.
Several high-ranking Russian officials have tried to explain to Putin that the impact of the sanctions will be devastating and will effectively cut off 20 years of economic development. Higher living standards in Russia, which emerged during Putin's rule, will also disappear. But the Russian autocrat rejected all these reservations, saying that although Russia would pay a high price, the West had no choice but to start a war. Putin has publicly stated that the “economic blitzkrieg” has failed. And the Russian economy is adapting to sanctions. He is still convinced that society supports him. And the Russians are ready to sacrifice his vision of national “greatness” for years. Putin stubbornly wants to continue the war, even though the Kremlin has had to curtail its ambitions to fight for control of Donbass. At the same time, Putin is convinced that if Russia agrees to settle for less, it will leave it “hopelessly vulnerable and weak” in the face of threats from the United States and its allies.
In the weeks since the war began, Putin's advisers and contacts have been further reduced. Two sources told the publication that the Russian autocrat spoke only with a small group of the toughest advisers with whom he had previously communicated. The decision to start a war against Ukraine was made by Putin himself and only a few “hawks”, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev.
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Critics see no sign of Putin's willingness to end the invasion, given the losses or the concessions needed to end the ceasefire. Due to its dominance in the Russian political system, alternative views are spread only in private conversations. Restrictions on access to information led to major Kremlin miscalculations at the start of the war. Moscow hoped that most Ukrainian officials and the military would side with Russia. They also expected rapid military progress there. Putin also underestimated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he considered weak. Oligarch Roman Abramovich, who has been a mediator in unsuccessful talks, has been forced to persuade Putin that Zelensky remained in Ukraine and did not flee at the start of the invasion.
Russian expert on special services Andrei Soldatov. In Moscow, the war was generally expected to last only a few weeks at most.
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