Not all sanctions have been imposed yet, the West is constantly expanding them.
In a month, Russia was virtually cut off from the global financial system, access to Western technologies and trade preferences were closed, and the country lost part of its civil aviation and half of its accumulated reserves. The population was left without currency and “Instagram”, and the elite – without foreign assets and the right to travel to the West. The Russian service of the BBC writes about this.
“Both financial centers (Switzerland, Singapore) and technology centers (South Korea, Taiwan) have joined the sanctions. Russia has become the main outcast country in the world, it has even bypassed North Korea, Syria and Iran, “the article reads.
It is noted that Russia still exports energy to Europe, its ships call at European and American ports. Some banks have avoided restrictions even in the United States, and significant exceptions have been made to many sanctions. Assets were seized and frozen, but not confiscated. However, the publication believes that these measures are in store for later, in the event of a serious escalation of the war, such as a massive bombing of civilians or the use of weapons of mass destruction, warned Western politicians.
Experts have gloomy forecasts for the Russian economy. Professor of the University of Chicago Konstantin Sonin called the mood of colleagues gloomy and outlined several options for the postwar trajectory of Russia's development after the inevitable decline in living standards.
“In all these scenarios, there is a long-term stagnation at a lower level than now. Decades of stagnation at a level where the economy will fall as a result of the war,” he wrote.
This is the case if there are no revolutionary upheavals and the power class in Russia as a whole does not change seriously. It will not be able to quickly modernize the country, break the will of the beneficiaries of the current system and rewrite the laws and concepts by which Russia came to life, Sonin said. And revolutionary change promises the collapse of an entire generation like the collapse of the Soviet economy.
Sanctions
Oil and gas
- The United States has imposed a total ban on the purchase of Russian oil, petroleum products, gas and coal.
- Canada and Australia have banned Russian oil imports.
- Britain has promised to nullify the purchase of oil and petroleum products from Russia by the end of the year.
- The EU and Germany have refused to certify Nord Stream 2, a newly built gas pipeline from Russia bypassing Ukraine.
- The EU and the US have banned the export of refining technology and equipment in addition to previous bans, which only affected production.
- The European Union, the West's largest buyer of Russian energy, has so far refrained from an oil or gas embargo. The EU imports 60% of all oil and oil products and 40% of gas from Russia. Replace overnight will not work, as in the United States, where this share does not exceed 8%.
Finance
- The West has seized $ 300 billion, or half of Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves. The other half does not help much – it is in gold, funds in the IMF and other illiquid assets in the current situation. Russia had to restrict the movement of capital, it lost the main lever of exchange rate policy.
- State banks have disconnected from SWIFT, the international system for exchanging information between financial institutions. Sberbank and Gazprombank have avoided this fate, as they make the main payments for oil and gas.
- Russia was left without cash dollars and euros. The United States and the European Union have banned the supply of banknotes.
- The West has banned Russia's lending and closed the world's major capital market.
- Russia has closed access to funds from the IMF and the World Bank.
Trade
- The West has decided to abolish the most-favored-nation treatment of trade with Russia. This means that trade wars are now allowed, all preferences are abolished. Each country must ratify this separately.
- Canada has already abolished this regime and imposed a 35% duty on all Russian imports. Only North Korea used to deserve that.
- The ports of Great Britain, Canada and New Zealand are closed to Russian ships.
- The EU has banned the import of metal products from Russia.
- The EU, Britain and the United States have banned the supply of luxury goods to Russia, from cars to clothing.
The United States has banned the import of Russian caviar, vodka and diamonds.
