Presumably, Surovikin promised Putin to concentrate his efforts on the occupation of Donetsk region, so that he would give permission for the withdrawal of troops from the right-bank Kherson region.
Organized retreat of Russian troops from the right-bank part of the Kherson region , which was announced directly by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, was probably agreed with the president of the aggressor country and took place under certain conditions. All things considered, some analysts believe that the strategy of the military-political leadershipof the Russian Federation has changed. According to the experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), from now on the main efforts of the occupying forces will be concentrated in the Donetsk region.
“Vladimir Putin allegedly allowed Surovikin to withdraw troops from western Kherson on the condition that he seize the rest of Donetsk region, in particular with the help of these forces, as well as newly mobilized soldiers,” the ISW report says.
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This assumption can be confirmed by the latest escalation of hostilities in the area of Bakhmut and Vugledar. Since poorly prepared units consisting of newly arrived servicemen were thrown into battle, moreover, in a zone where there are no operationally significant points, except for Bakhmut, it can be judged that in this way the commander of the United Forces of the Russian Federation confirmed to Putin his commitment to the goal.< /p>
ISW Institute for the Study of War
Despite all the difficulties with the organization of disjointed and in some places poorly prepared forces in the coming weeks, as the units transferred from the Kherson region arrive, the attacks on Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region will only intensify. Experts of the Institute of War Research believe that it is unlikely that the Russians will achieve significant operational success, but it is quite possible that they may still succeed in capturing Bakhmut with significant losses.
Read also: WP: The retreat of the Russian army from Kherson creates conditions for an even tougher battle
Currently, there are several groups operating in Donetsk region, including regular units of the Russian Armed Forces, mobilized servicemen, troops of the “Wagner” PMC, formations of the BARS (Russian Volunteer Reserve), detachments of militants of the so-called DPR and LPR, and Kadyrivets.
“This a whimsical cluster of military units would have far less combat power than a group of regular units of similar size, and it is highly unlikely that Surovikin would be able to turn them into a force capable of waging large-scale offensive maneuver warfare, especially since he doesn't even take the time to create a coherent strike group before than throwing him into battle” – ISW analysts believe.
Read also: “Russia's biggest defeat in a generation” – Forbes about the retreat of the occupiers from Kherson
Probably “united” Russian forces will be able to achieve certain successes, but only due to quantity, not quality. Instead, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to regroup and try to hold their positions for the next few months.
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Recall that the Institute for War Research previously noted that against the background of the retreat of Russian forces from the right bank of the Kherson region, it began to increase the influence of the “security forces” faction in the Kremlin.
See the special topic: The occupiers fired three rockets in one district of Kharkiv The Russian army also shelled three districts in the Kharkiv region. Zelensky arrived in liberated Kherson The president said that he wanted to support the military and the residents of the city. The Ministry of Internal Affairs explained why Putin still has not released Shoigu A change in the military leadership can provoke problems that the Russian leader does not want to solve, especially at the stage of war. The Armed Forces of Ukraine raised the Ukrainian flag in one more village in the Kherson region: map Ukrainian troops de-occupied 179 settlements in the south. Criticism of the Kremlin's nuclear threats began in China – Reuters In the US, it is believed that Beijing is “surprised and even somewhat embarrassed by the course of the Russian war”.
