There are no global threats or standards, there is only a regional balance that needs to be constantly maintained.
The Joe Biden administration has loudly called for the protection of something called “international order-based order.” But such a thing does not exist. There is no planetary scale of space in the management of common rules or several key forces. And the war in Ukraine reminded me of that.
For example, Jacob Griegiel, a professor at the Catholic University of America and a researcher at the Hoover Institution, writes in an article for the Wall Street Journal. According to him, there are also no “global threats” that all countries face. Rather, regional revisionists are threatening their neighbors. Temporary equilibrium in regions with their own strength dynamics is due to local historical rivalry. Such a balance is unstable and prone to war. She needs attention and control.
Over the last three decades, local order in the regions of Europe, the Middle East and Asia has been relatively stable. And local conflicts were contained. Therefore, it seemed that there was a world order. Liberals saw this global stability as the result of international rules, the growth of democracies, and the revival of international trade. They say that this is a world order based on rules, created by democracies and the trading world. The realists, on the other hand, saw a world order enshrined in a rough balance between the great powers: the United States, Russia, and China. Their nuclear arsenals have effectively played the role of a calming tool for balancing.
Both of these worldviews place too much emphasis on the global nature of this stability. If we look at the light through the prism of regional orders, the picture will be more disturbing. Russia's wars against Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, Iran's behavior in Iraq, Yemen and Syria, and China's military expansion in Asia are all signs of growing local instability. But so far, these have been erratic impulses provoked by uncertain revisionist forces held back by American force. Russia's current war against Ukraine was the first full-scale military offensive to radically change the local balance of power. Russia wants to be a decisive force in Europe. And for this he needs to dominate Ukraine.
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Regional orders are fragile for two reasons. First, military forces are more likely to be used in a local context than in a dispute between distant rivals. For local players, the stakes are high and the risks can be limited. The revisionist force is likely to pursue its goal, such as gaining territory or taking control of its neighbors' political lives because of the war, rather than through negotiation. And the victims of aggression will not accept the enemy's occupation without a fight. After all, both sides are not so much interested in preventing war as in making it a useful tool for achieving their goals. War is a constant regional reality.
The United States tends to view stability as a broad goal of its broad strategy. According to President Biden, the goal is to “prevent” the outbreak of World War III. But regional revisionists in Eurasia are not afraid to press on their fronts to expand their influence. The threat is that they will also choose war instead of obedience, regional unrest instead of losing independence. The United States will have to figure out how to withstand or come to terms with instability in regions important to its national interests.
The second reason for the instability of regional orders is that local rivalry is geographically limited but long-lasting. Local conflicts are justified or based on historical encroachments. Real or imaginary images inflicted in the past generate a thirst for revenge, dreams of greatness push for territorial conquests, and national self-confidence motivates stubborn hostility to aggressive neighbors. When the source of political action is a claim to national greatness, it becomes very difficult to reach diplomatic compromises. Prolonged conflicts are beginning to seem more acceptable than negotiations. Local antagonists want to force the other side to pay as high a price as possible, whether they attack (like Russia) or defend (like Ukraine). The calculation is that higher risk will bring higher rewards. The aggressor expects to gain more influence and a wider territory, and the defender – independence and greater security.
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For a distant power such as the United States, the long-term nature of regional conflicts in Eurasia is a political challenge. Managing such conflicts requires consistent intervention and constant presence. But the US approach is to participate in regional geopolitical dynamics only when it is necessary to restore balance. After that, they move to another region. That is why we hear talk of “unification” of Europe and “reversal” in Asia.
Very rarely in history do local conflicts end forever. This was only the case when the crushing war redrawn the borders with blood. The Franco-German conflict of the 19th and 20th centuries became friends only after two disgusting world wars. The end result was good for Europe. But to get it, the connoisseur had to go through a tragedy that could have been avoided. Russia's current war against Ukraine will also end. But the conflict between the two peoples – never. The best that can be hoped for is a delicate balance that will require continued support through Western economic and military assistance to Ukraine.
If Ukraine survives Russian aggression and remains an independent state, the Biden administration will be tempted to declare it a victory for a world order based on rules and democracy. But this is a mistake. Victory will belong only to Ukraine. It will provide fragile regional stability, not a renewed world order.
See special topic: In GSChS named quantity of dead and wounded after attack of the Nikolaev YEAH While search and rescue works still proceed. 120 companies were evacuated from the combat zone , 48 have already started working at the new location. In Ukraine, the victims of the civilian population were more than three thousand people – the UN At the same time, the real losses are much higher. Russian intelligence recruited a child in Kharkov – the SBU used the young man as a fire adjuster. The Netherlands, Belgium and the Czech Republic are expelling Russian diplomats for espionage In addition, Ireland is expelling Russian embassy staff for “violating the standards of diplomatic conduct.”
