The Kremlin would like to suffer a crushing defeat at the hands of the NATO army, not to have the Ukrainian Armed Forces humiliatingly defeat the Russian army.
Of all the bets made by Vladimir Putin, only one played. His proceeds from the sale of gas and oil still remain intact. They are even increasing due to rising energy prices.
His biggest mistake was to believe that the Ukrainians would not defend themselves. It was foolish to think so after two revolutions in Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of participants mobilized to protect their country from Russia's political domination. Putin told himself that all these protests were not real. And they were allegedly organized and financed by foreigners. He says the same about protests in Russia, according to the Wall Street Journal.
All of Putin's plans have failed. Tens of thousands of people died. Entire cities have been turned into ruins. Russian soldiers have committed horrific war crimes , and the Russian economy is collapsing. And now Ukrainian forces are launching air strikes on Russian territory. Thousands of conscripts are fleeing the country to avoid being cannon fodder in Putin's military failure. It is worth listening to the statements and read the messages of the most Western-oriented Putin's servants: Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the “universal hand dog” Russian autocrat Dmitry Medvedev. They are not even trying to convince anyone that the war against Ukraine has not been a catastrophe for Russia. However, they insist that this war could be such a catastrophe for the West.
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Analysts at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds also believe that Putin has lost the opportunity to reduce his losses.
but also to expand the scale of the confrontation between the systems, ie between Russia and NATO, “the publication quoted analysts as saying, adding that Putin had always publicly acknowledged that the alliance's military might far surpassed that of Russia.
Whatever Putin thinks, military analysts believe that on Monday, when Russia celebrates Victory Day over Adolf Hitler's regime in 1945, the Russian autocrat will say in his annual speech what will happen next. Meanwhile, Washington continues to keep President Biden's promise that US troops will not be directly involved in the ongoing war on Ukrainian soil. Is America really sure of that?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would no doubt want NATO to intervene. Moreover, he now faces a military-political choice: to cede territory or risk his troops by ordering them to attack. Of course, the feeling that the Biden administration can no longer allow Ukraine to lose may influence the decision of the Ukrainian leader.
Meanwhile, the Russian side, which failed to win easily but had to acknowledge the extent of NATO's determination, feels that the situation is changing dramatically. It is becoming increasingly clear that Putin would like to be stopped by the Western alliance, whose military superiority he recognizes over Ukraine's army. After all, if the Russian army is defeated by the Armed Forces, it will be even more humiliating and exposing the corruption and demoralization of Russian troops.
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If Putin wants to drag NATO into the war, he knows how to do it. The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov – one of the three authors of the war against Ukraine on a par with Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu – unexpectedly arrived on the front line last week. It is believed that he wanted to see for himself the state of his army. What conclusions did he draw about the ability of Russian troops to hold territory and withstand the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the coming months?
The publication returns to the Joe Biden administration. In recent weeks, based on the findings of his military advisers and hard intelligence, the US president has raised stakes in an attempt to force Russia to swallow something more like a defeat than the stalemate Putin would like to take now. Anything that looks like Ukraine's defeat will now also be considered a defeat for the United States.
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