Lifting the blockade on Ukraine's largest port will not solve the problem of food shortages, but it will show that Putin is in fact a “paper tiger.”
There are a large number of options for escalation, which Vladimir Putin did not dare: from weapons that he never used, to targets that he never hit. Because he wants to survive and pave the way for something that will consolidate power in his hands.
He wants to avoid any war with NATO – conventional or nuclear. And this is what can turn a probable victory into a guaranteed defeat. This was written in an article for the Wall Street Journal by columnist and writer Holman Jenkins. Putin sacrificed thousands of soldiers to NATO-handed weapons to Ukraine without ever hitting supply lines or alliance personnel. In 2014, after the start of the war against Ukraine, Russian spies blew up an ammunition depot in the Czech Republic. But now there were no such cases.
According to the author, this proves that the various proposals to use NATO warships to unblock grain exports from Ukraine do not really carry any risks. It is almost certain that Putin will reconcile. He will succeed, that nothing is happening, just as he did after Sweden and Finland announced their intention to join NATO. In cases where Putin can do nothing about the challenge or failure, he pretends that it does not exist. Participate in the unblocking of Odessa to prove the collective determination of the alliance. The pre-war sluggishness of the Allies has not yet dissipated. The author is convinced that unlocking the export of Ukrainian grain will not greatly affect the cost of food. Ukraine and Russia account for a third of wheat exports. But these exports account for only 7% of everything produced in the world. In addition, Russia steals and exports Ukrainian grain.
The 20 million tons of Ukrainian wheat reported in Washington is 2.5% of world production. Jenkins believes that the problems of poor countries are mainly due to the consequences of quarantine due to COVID-19 and Western fiscal and monetary maneuvers. Local food prices have been hit by a double whammy of inflation and a strengthening dollar.
“What the unblocking of Odessa can actually expose is that almost any strong NATO intervention will force Putin to retreat sensibly. At the same time, the propaganda will convince his people that all the results are evidence of his will and strength. This is the best reason to take a step forward and not spread the wrong panic signal about grain supplies, “the author writes.
Read also: NATO calls Russia “the most significant and direct threat” to the Alliance
In his view, the West has the power to isolate Russia. And every day this task becomes easier. The price of the device will be irreversible, but the world will continue to live on. NATO economies are 25 times larger than Russia's. For them, the pricing mechanism is an ally. Price signals in energy markets change the direction of consumption and the flow of investment. In the raw materials market, they will tell farmers that it is time to cultivate more land and change the set of crops they grow. Consumers of raw materials will understand that you need to invest in efficiency and substitutes. Governments and non-governmental humanitarian organizations, in turn, will see exactly where help is needed. This adaptation is willy-nilly happening and can be helped by changes in policies on standards for renewable fuels, land use regulation, environmental inspection and market distribution. Stupid gestures such as the accumulation of grain through the introduction of a ban on its export should be avoided (India is already doing so).
The pressure on Russia's economy and domestic policy, as well as on its internal peace, will have to build for a long time. But he will be formidable. Putin is not aware of this obvious reality. He knows that the turmoil in the Western economy over sanctions against Russia is an exhaustive asset for him. Adaptation is already underway. Stakeholders will soon appear who will benefit from Russia's expulsion. Society will reconcile and get used to the inconvenience. In a year or two, the very idea of returning Russian energy, grain or minerals to the world market will be considered more harmful than the other way around. Russia's resource, which has not been used for the past two decades, is Putin's high ability to retreat. When the war with Ukraine did not start as he had planned, he narrowed his ambitions by focusing on Donbass. He hopes that there he will be able to declare victory and a truce at any time when the wave of war turns against him.
Of course, the obstacle remains the silent belief of some officials in the West that the war is over, although the shooting continues. The decision is not far off, regardless of whether Ukraine will counterattack in the fall. Some are ready to tacitly agree to Putin's illegal occupation of eastern Ukraine. And perhaps this is the biggest reason why members of the Western alliance are in no hurry to inflict another defeat on Putin by unblocking grain exports through Odessa.
We will remind, the Russian Federation blocks export from the Ukrainian ports of grain and meanwhile steals elevators in the occupied territories.
Under pressure of the world society for unblocking of sea ways from our country it became known that Ankara and Moscow reached the preliminary agreement on the supply of Ukrainian agricultural products across the Black Sea. At the same time, these countries did not agree on the issue with Kyiv , and directly Turkey is one of the countries that buys grain stolen by the Russians in Ukraine .
Later, Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko warned that Russia cannot be trusted when it convinces that it will give “security guarantees” to ships that will enter Ukrainian ports to pick up grain.
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